TFM Morning Update 01-31-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 5 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $0.34; Soyoil down 0.41.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 19 1/2; Soymeal up $1.17; Soyoil up 0.48.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 44 1/2 in SRW, down 19 3/4 in HRW, down 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $14.30; Soyoil down 3.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.5% in SRW, down 2.3% in HRW, down 2.3% in HRS; Corn is up 0.6%; Soybeans up 0.6%; Soymeal up 1.4%; Soyoil down 4.2%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans down 15 yuan; Soymeal up 33; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil down 66; Corn down 31 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 121 ringgit (-3.07%) at 3815.

There were changes in registrations (-22 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,728 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 797 Soybeans; 479 Soyoil; 62 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 30 were: SRW Wheat up 3,356 contracts, HRW Wheat down 417, Corn up 771, Soybeans up 4,693, Soymeal up 5,219, Soyoil up 2,821.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated showers north through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers north through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers north through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal west and below normal east Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers far south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

The player sheet for Jan. 30 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 7,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.


  • CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 112,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Japan for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Jan. 31, with offers having to remain valid until Feb. 1, they said.
  • CORN TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced a tender to supply yellow corn on a free-on-board basis (FOB) for shipment between Feb. 20 and Mar. 10. 2023. Payment will be at sight, with funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). Suppliers should submit bids on Feb. 1.
  • VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Saturday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Feb. 25-March 3. GASC added that traders should submit bids for payment via 180-day letters of credit and at sight; and it will choose between them. The deadline for offers is Jan. 31.


  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 19,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.


  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were narrowly mixed on Monday on moderate demand for near-term supplies and weather-slowed shipping on Midwest rivers, while corn basis bids were mostly flat, traders said.
    • Frigid temperatures in the northern Midwest have increased ice buildup on the Illinois River, slowing river navigation. Declining water levels at the busy Port of St. Louis also prompted shippers to reduce barge drafts, further slowing the flow of grain to the Gulf, brokers said.
    • Barge freight rates held mostly steady, underpinned by tight supplies of empty vessels and slow river navigation, brokers said.
    • Gulf export premiums for corn and soybeans were steady to firmer as harvest delays in Brazil have supported demand for replacement loads from the United States. Brazil’s soybean harvest is one to two weeks later than expected after recent rains, traders said.
    • Traders are also awaiting renewed export demand from China as buyers there return after last week’s Lunar New Year celebrations.
    • CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in January were bid at 115 cents over March futures, up a penny from bids late on Friday. February barges were bid at 107 cents over futures, down a penny.
    • FOB basis offers for February soybean shipments held at around 130 cents over March futures, while premiums for March shipments rose by 5 cents to 120 cents over futures.
    • Basis bids for CIF corn barges loaded in January were 87 cents over March corn, almost unchanged from late last week.
    • FOB offers for February corn shipments held at around 95 cents over March, and March FOB offers were a penny higher at 99 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn were steady to weak at U.S. Midwest river terminals on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Bids for both commodities were mostly unchanged at processors and elevators around the interior of the region.
    • Farmers were booking sales for small amounts of soybeans as a futures market rally pushed prices higher.
    • But activity as lighter than expected, with most growers hoping for higher prices before committing to new sales, an Ohio dealer said.
    • Although the interior basis was mostly steady, the corn basis eased by 3 cents a bushel in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans rose at U.S. Midwest processors on Monday, dealers said.
    • The soy basis was flat at elevators around the interior of the region as well as terminals along rivers.
    • Cash bids for corn were mostly unchanged at processors, elevators and river terminals.
    • At ethanol pants, the corn basis was steady to weak, falling by 3 cents a bushel in Union City, Indiana.
    • Farmers were not showing much interest in selling Monday morning despite a rally in soybean futures, an Iowa dealer said.
    • Growers were content to wait and see if prices rose further by the afternoon before deciding if they wanted to book new deals for the crops in their storage bins, the dealer added.
    • Although the corn basis was mostly flat at grain processors, bids fell by 2 cents a bushel at a plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal were steady to firm at truck market processors around the U.S. Midwest on Monday, dealers said.
    • Offers at rail market processors unchanged.
    • Values were underpinned by tight supplies.
    • There were no offers listed at three Iowa processors, with a dealer in the area saying all soymeal being produced at those plants was needed to fulfill orders that customers had previously booked.
    • On the export front, FOB offers for soymeal loadings onto oceangoing vessels at the U.S. Gulf were strong for April, May and June.
    • Traders said that capacity for those periods was limited as overseas buyers book deals for spring shipping.

US Inspected 528k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.855m of Soybean

In week ending Jan. 26, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Corn: 528k tons vs 729k the previous wk, 1,036k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 445k tons vs 349k the previous wk, 377k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 1,855k tons vs 1,839k the previous wk, 1,418k a yr ago

Winter Wheat Conditions Improve in Kansas, Slip in Okla.: USDA

The following table shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of Jan. 29, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

  • Kansas crop conditions rose to 21% good/excellent in the week ending Jan. 29 vs 19% in the week ending Jan. 1
  • Oklahoma conditions fell to 17% good/excellent vs 38%
  • Texas conditions rose to 14% good/excellent from 11%

Brazil 2022/23 Soy Harvest 5% Done as of Jan. 26: AgRural

Brazil 2022/23 soy harvest was 5% done compared with 2% a week earlier and 10% a year ago, consulting firm AgRural saud in an emailed report.

  • Despite the record production expected in the current harvest, the volume harvested so far is approximately 8m tons, compared to almost 13m tons a year ago, when there was a crop failure, but the harvest was more accelerated, AgRural said
  • Brazil Center-South winter corn planting 5% was done as of Jan. 26, compared with 1% a week ago and 14% in the same period last year
  • The delay still does not threaten the cereal planting, but it is important that the advance occurs more quickly from the beginning of February so that the sowing is not done in a very concentrated way, AgRural said

China’s demand for Brazil corn concerns meat processors, lobby group says

The expectation of large Brazilian corn exports to China in 2023 is worrying Brazil’s meat companies in a large producing state, according to a statement from Santa Catarina’s meat processors lobby Sindicarne on Monday.

The group said competition from Chinese buyers is already reducing local supplies and making corn used to feed poultry and pork an “overpriced” commodity.

“Even with the sector being more prepared for negotiations and more attentive to its stocks and purchases, there is always competition from the international market,” Sindicarne said. “For 2023 the signs are worrying.”

Brazilian corn exports to China were cleared late last year after both nations updated trade protocols. Since then, several vessels were booked by companies like Cofco

At Brazil’s southern port of Paranagua, for example, corn exports jumped to almost 570,000 tonnes through Jan. 29 driven by China. This corresponds to a 161% rise in volume compared with the whole of January 2022, the port authority said.

According to Sindicarne, which represents global poultry and pork processors including JBS JBSS3.SA and BRF BRFS3.SA, the government must also “do its part” to attract investments aimed at reducing Brazil’s logistical bottlenecks.

The group said that while Brazil has created a decent logistics network to export grains, there are no railroads connecting grain regions in the center west to southern Brazil, where pork and chicken are typically raised and processed.

Sindicarne believes that the threat of global recession and food inflation represents a chance for Brazilian companies to serve even more markets.

“We cannot miss the opportunity,” the statement said quoting Jose Ribas Junior, Sindicarne’s president.

Ukraine 2023/24 grain crop likely to fall to 35-40 mln T – producer

Ukraine’s grain harvest is likely to fall to 35 to 40 million tonnes in 2023, including 12-15 million tonnes of wheat and 15-17 million tonnes of corn, a senior analyst and producer said on Monday.

Alex Lissitsa, CEO of the IMC agriculture company and the president of the Association “Ukrainian Agribusiness Club”, told a grain conference that Ukraine would be able to export around 15 million tonnes of grain in the 2023/24 season.

The export could include up to 7 million tonnes of wheat and up to 10 million tonnes of corn.

Lissitsa also said that low wheat output could lead to a certain shortage of food grain for local consumption, which could potentially lead to restrictions on food wheat exports from Ukraine, adding: “There is such a danger.”

He said the expected discussion of an export ban would start in May, with officials likely to be taken by surprise at the low amount sown.

Lissitsa said the Russian invasion in late February last year was the main reason for the fall. Swathes of land in the east, south and north of the country have been occupied or damaged by hostilities.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities have led to widespread power shortages and blackouts for millions of people across the country.

Denys Marchuk, deputy chair of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, told Ukrainian television earlier on Monday that the area sown to corn in Ukraine could fall by 30% to 35% in 2023 because of a shortage of money for farmers and electricity blackouts.

He said a significant acreage of corn from the 2022 harvest was still in fields and could not be harvested and low domestic corn price cannot allow farmers get back the invested funds.

Ukraine is a global major wheat and corn grower but it has said that its 2022 grain harvest could fall to around 51 million tonnes from a record 86 million tonnes harvested in 2021.

USDA December soybean crush seen at 188.0 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely slowed in December from the prior month to 5.639 million short tons, or 188.0 million bushels, according to the average forecast of seven analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

The December crush would be down from the 189.4 million bushels that USDA reported as processed in November, and well below the December 2021 crush of 198.2 million bushels, which was a record high for any month.

December is typically among the most active months for soy processing, but harsh winter weather last month slowed the crush pace at several plants, analysts said.

Crush estimates ranged from 187.0 million bushels to 188.6 million bushels, with a median of 188.0 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Wednesday, Feb. 1.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of Dec. 31 likely rose to 2.249 billion lbs, based on the average of estimates from five analysts. If realized, the supply would be up from 2.108 billion at the end of November and the most since the end of June, but below stocks totaling 2.466 billion lbs at the end of December 2021.

Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 2.220 billion to 2.300 billion lbs, with a median of 2.236 billion lbs.

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) members, which account for about 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 177.505 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 0.9% from November and down 4.8% from December 2021. Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of Dec. 30 rose to 1.791 billion lbs, up 9.9% from November.

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices return to level prior to the Russia-Ukraine war

Wheat prices are following opposite directions between the regions surveyed by Cepea, with most of them fading. In Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul, the monthly averages have been at the lowest levels since Jan/22 and Oct/21, respectively, which is prior to the Russia-Ukraine war – it is important to highlight that the war resulted in high price rises for wheat in the international market.

Thus, in some of the regions surveyed by Cepea, wheat valuations are linked to the lower supply from Argentina, limited sales in Brazil and the high performance of the national exports. On the other hand, in other areas, quotations are being pressed down by the higher interest in sales – many farmers need to room in warehouses to stock the summer crop.

Between January 20 and 27, wheat prices dropped a slight 0.06% in the wholesale market of Rio Grande do Sul, but rose 0.61% in that of São Paulo, 1.61% in Paraná and 0.59% in Santa Catarina. The prices paid to wheat farmers decreased 0.92% in Rio Grande do Sul and 2% in Paraná.

In January (until the 27th), the average wheat price in Paraná is currently 4.1% lower than that in December, at BRL 1,696.34/ton this month, the lowest since Jan/22, in nominal terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, quotations decreased 4.3% in the monthly comparison, to BRL 1,485.69/ton in January, the lowest since Oct/21. In São Paulo, values decreased 2%, to BRL 1,814.57/ton in Jan/23, the lowest since Feb/22. In Santa Catarina, the average is at BRL 1,613.46/ton, 5.7% down from that in Dec/22 and the lowest since Dec/21, in nominal terms.

Indonesia Set to Start B35 Biodiesel Mandate on Feb. 1

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, is set to implement the mandatory use of 35% palm oil-mixed diesel in the transportation sector starting Feb. 1, says Coordinating Economic Affairs Ministry deputy for food and agribusiness Musdhalifah Machmud.

  • Indonesia needs 30.22t rupiah for biodiesel subsidies this year, assuming avg price gap between biodiesel and gasoil is 2,299 rupiah/liter: Indonesia Oil Palm Plantations Fund Management Agency
  • Govt to push biodiesel plant development in Papua island to improve distribution in eastern Indonesia, says Energy Ministry renewable energy director general Dadan Kusdiana
  • Implementation of B35 will cut emissions by 34.9m tons, says Airlangga Hartarto, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs
  • Policy will increase domestic palm oil demand, potentially replacing lower export demand from EU

Malaysia Jan. Palm Oil Exports -27% M/m: Intertek

  • Total exports for Jan. 2023: 1.134m tons
  • Crude palm oil exports: 251,350 tons, 22.2% of total
  • EU led all destinations for total exports: 364,487 tons

Malaysia’s Jan. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,066,287 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments fall 27% m/m from 1,456,986 tons exported during Dec. 1-31, according to AmSpec Agri.

  • Exports -3.5% y/y from 1,105,407 tons shipped in Jan. 2022

Ukraine’s Black Sea Crop Exports Fall 32% in Week to Jan. 29

Crop exports from Ukraine’s ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative totaled about 607,771 tons in the week to Jan. 29, according to data posted by the Joint Coordination Centre.

  • The total compares to about 893,874 tons the prior week
  • TOTAL TONNAGE: About 19m tons of crops have been shipped since the initiative was agreed in late July

Egypt Soybean Imports Hit 4M Tons/Year

Egypt plans to increase soybean agricultural land to 150k feddan in 2023 in order to meet shortage of animal feed in local market, cabinet says in a statement.

Areas to increase to 500k feddan in coming years

Egypt imports 4m tons of soybeans and 13m tons of corn per year




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