TFM Morning Update 02-01-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil down 0.18.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans up 25 1/2; Soymeal up $0.97; Soyoil up 1.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.4% in SRW, down 1.5% in HRW, down 2.1% in HRS; Corn is down 0.4%; Soybeans up 1.0%; Soymeal up 1.0%; Soyoil down 2.6%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans up 6 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil down 142; Corn down 30 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 121 ringgit (-3.07%) at 3815.

There were changes in registrations (-10 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,728 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 797 Soybeans; 479 Soyoil; 52 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 31 were: SRW Wheat up 3,152 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,284, Corn up 1,359, Soybeans up 11,193, Soymeal up 39, Soyoil up 6,768.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

 Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

 Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal west and below normal east Friday, above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

 Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

 Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Lake-effect snow Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Jan. 31 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.


  • WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, traders said.
  • VEGOILS SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, has bought 35,000 tonnes of vegetable oils in international and local tenders, it said on Tuesday. The purchase comprised 19,000 tonnes of soyoil and 10,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in the international tender. It also bought 6,000 tonnes of soyoil in a local tender.
  • DURUM WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to purchased durum wheat in a tender which closed on Tuesday.
  • WHEAT SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in an international tender on Wednesday
  • FEED CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities announced a tender on Tuesday for the purchase of wheat within the framework of the Food Security and Resilience Support Program funded by the World Bank under Loan No. EG -9399 with at sight financing. The deadline for offers is Feb. 2, GASC said.


  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 19,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs).
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • CORN TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced a tender to supply yellow corn on a free-on-board basis (FOB) for shipment between Feb. 20 and Mar. 10. 2023. Payment will be at sight, with funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). Suppliers should submit bids on Feb. 1.


  • Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly steady on Tuesday on muted demand and flat-to-lower freight costs, traders said.
    • Slow farmer sales curbed the flow of corn and soybeans into the export market pipeline, offsetting the weak Gulf export demand.
    • Cold weather in the northern Midwest triggered moderate ice buildup on the Illinois River that slowed river navigation. Low water at the busy Port of St. Louis also prompted shippers to reduce barge drafts, limiting the amount of grain loaded per barge.
    • Brazilian trade group Anec forecast the country’s January soybean exports at 1.222 million tonnes and corn exports at 4.991 million. Both were strong totals but were below estimates last week.
    • CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in January were bid at 115 cents over March futures, while February barges were bid at 107 cents over futures, both unchanged.
    • FOB basis offers for February soybean shipments were steady at around 130 cents over March futures, while premiums for March shipments held at 120 cents over futures.
    • Basis bids for CIF corn barges loaded in January were unchanged at 87 cents over March corn futures.
    • FOB offers for February corn shipments fell 5 cents to around 90 cents over March, and March FOB offers were flat at 99 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were mixed at U.S. Midwest processors west of the Mississippi River on Tuesday morning, dealers said.
    • Bids at the region’s eastern processors were unchanged.
    • Corn bids also were flat at grain elevators, ethanol plants and river terminals.
    • Cash bids for soybeans held steady at processors, elevators and river terminals around the region.
    • Country movement was light, with farmers showing little interest in booking deals for either commodity at current price levels.
  • Spot basis bids for corn delivered to U.S. Midwest rail terminals fell on Tuesday, grain dealers said.
    • The corn basis was steady to weak at the region’s processors, falling by five cents a bushel in Blair, Nebraska.
    • Corn bids were unchanged at truck market elevators and along rivers.
    • The soy basis was flat at interior elevators, processors and river terminals.
    • Activity on the cash market was slow, with cold weather around the region deterring farmers from delivering supplies from contracts they previously booked, dealers said.
    • New sales were slow, with prices remaining near levels that farmers have seen in recent weeks.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady to weak at truck market elevators in Oklahoma on Tuesday, grain dealers said.
    • The hard red winter wheat basis was flat at grain elevators in Kansas and at southern U.S. Plains rail terminals that ship supplies to the Gulf for export.
    • Farmer sales were slow, a dealer in Oklahoma said.
    • A cold snap across the region raised concerns about crop health, but the lowest temperatures were reported in areas where a blanket of snow protected the dormant wheat.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal were mostly unchanged in the rail and truck markets on Tuesday, dealers said.
    • On the export front, CIF offers for soymeal shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf and FOB offers for loading at Gulf export terminals were strong for deferred time periods.
    • There were no CIF or FOB offers for January, February or March due to tight supply levels.
    • The supply tightness was underpinning values in the truck and rail markets, a rail broker said.
    • Soymeal available for sale was limited due to short run times during December and some surprise maintenance shutdowns during January, the broker added.
    • Although the basis was mostly steady, offers rose by $10 a ton at a rail terminal in the Kansas City market.


ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 27 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.011m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 25.381m bbl vs 25.077m a week ago
    • Stockpiles jumped to a ten-month high in last week’s report

US Cattle Herd Falls to 89.27 Million Head

The US Jan. 1 herd fell 3% from the same time a year ago, according to the USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report.

  • Number of cows and heifers that have calved fell by 2.6% y/y
  • Beef cows down 3.6% y/y and milk cows rose by 0.3% y/y
  • Heifers 500+ pounds fell by 3.7% y/y
  • Last year’s calf crop fell by 2% y/y

USDA attache cuts Argentina 2022/23 soy crop forecast to 36 mln T

Jan 31 (Reuters) – Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires:

“Dry weather and high temperatures in the last months of 2022 have damaged the Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 Argentine soybean crop, particularly affecting first crop soybeans within a 125 kilometer radius of Rosario, Santa Fe Province. Recent rains will buy time for second crop soybeans, but better-than-average weather through February is needed for a substantial recovery. Post lowers its MY 2022/23 estimated production to 36 million metric tons (MMT), 9.5 MMT below the official USDA estimate. The drought is also affecting sunflower seed and peanut production to a lesser extent. Post estimates sunflower seed production at 4 MMT on lower-than-expected yields in northern production areas. Peanut production is lowered to 1.05 MMT on smaller-than-expected planted area and anticipated lower yields.”

USDA attache sees Brazil 2022/23 corn crop at 125.5 mln tonnes

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Brasilia:

“Brazil is set for another record-breaking grain harvest. Post maintains its corn planted area forecast at 22.5 million hectares for MY (marketing year) 2022/2023 and corn production is forecast at 125.5 MMT (million metric tons) for MY 2022/2023, up 8% from the estimated 116 MMT for MY 2021/2022. Post maintains its forecast for corn exports for MY 2022/2023 at 47 MMT, based on the continued interest in international markets. Post reduces the forecast for rice planted area for MY 2022/2023 to 1.53 million hectares, based on continued loss of profitability of rice crops in Brazil and high maintenance costs. For MY 2022/2023, milled rice production is forecast at 7.2 MMT of milled rice equivalent (MRE), a 1.4% drop from 2021/2022. Brazil is expected to reach record wheat production. Post forecasts wheat production for MY 2022/2023 at 9.6 MMT and raises its forecast for wheat export in MY 2022/2023 to 3.5 MMT on a wheat grain equivalent basis (WGE), up 6% from its previous estimate.”

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 4.991 Tns In January


Argentina soy sales tick up to 81%, slightly lag previous harvest

Soybean sales from Argentina’s 2021/2022 harvest covered 80.8% of the 44 million tonne harvest as of last week, slightly below the 83% sold from the previous season at the same time, agricultural ministry data showed on Tuesday.

Soybeans are Argentina’s top cash crop, with exports a main source of much-needed hard currency for the country’s cash strapped government.

Between Jan. 19-25, farmers sold 56,200 tonnes of soy, one of the lowest weekly volumes reported in recent months.

Meanwhile, Argentine corn farmers have sold 77.4% of the country’s 2021/2022 corn harvest estimated at 59 million tonnes, according to ministry data, also below the 79.4% sold from the previous season in the same period.

Farmers have also sold 7.1 million tonnes, or 52.7%, of Argentina’s 2022/2023 wheat crop, which the government has projected at just 13.4 million tonnes due to prolonged drought.

Argentina launches relief fund for farmers hit by historic drought

Argentina will launch measures to help producers hit by a historic drought over its main agricultural region, Economy Minister Sergio Massa said on Tuesday, including a relief fund to tackle considerable losses to the country’s grains harvests.

The ministry will give producers access to a 5 billion pesos ($27 million) relief fund, Massa said after a meeting with the South American country’s main rural associations.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean processed oil and meal, and the world’s No. 3 corn exporter, but the drought that began in May delayed farmers from planting their crops while grains exchanges slashed estimates.

Massa also announced other measures, such as the suspension of advance income tax payments for producers in areas hardest hit by the drought, smaller interest rates, and bigger subsidies.

Recent rains have brought needed relief to much of Argentina’s parched agricultural land, but the country’s wheat harvest ended at a little over half the previous cycle’s output.

“I know this is not necessarily everything they asked for,” Massa said in a statement. “It’s what we can do at this time.”

United Airlines Turns to Corn for Its Biggest Green Fuel Push

  • United forms sustainable fuel venture with US ethanol producer
  • Goal is to bring ethanol-based jet fuel to market by 2028

One of the biggest airlines in the US is teaming up with a corn ethanol maker in a bid to ramp up production of green jet fuel sought to help avert catastrophic climate change.

United Airlines Holdings Inc., biofuels producer Green Plains Inc. and energy infrastructure firm Tallgrass Energy Partners LP are jointly investing up to $50 million to form Blue Blade Energy. The venture seeks to bring to market technology that would simplify making sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, from ethanol and other alcohol-based ingredients, also known as feedstocks.

United plans to buy as many as 2.7 billion gallons of the fuel, its biggest SAF agreement by volume, as the airline works to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Green Plains also is racing to curb greenhouse gases in an effort to profit in an increasingly low-carbon energy economy. The venture centers around the idea that ethanol will beat out other commodities, like vegetable oil, as a preferred ingredient for making green jet fuel.

“The trouble with SAF is the lack of feedstock,” United Airlines Ventures President Michael Leskinen said in an interview. Blue Blade “has the potential to be very consequential in moving the needle in how much SAF is actually produced in the United States.”

The initial investment is for testing development. If that’s a success, then hundreds of millions in financing would be needed to build an initial production plant, according to Leskinen.

The goal for now is to prove the technology developed by researchers at the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The next step would be to build a test plant in 2024, followed by a facility that could start operating by 2028. The offtake agreement could provide for enough SAF to fly more than 50,000 flights annually between United’s hub airports in Chicago and Denver.

Green Plains Chief Executive Officer Todd Becker argues biofuel ingredients, like discarded animal fats or vegetable oils, are too limited to adequately supply a growing SAF industry. Ethanol, in contrast, already has the volume needed and is quickly becoming more climate-friendly, he said.

“I believe in this industry all roads will lead to SAF for low-carbon ethanol,” Becker said. “There’s just not going to be enough to make an impact coming out of vegetable oil.”

SAF investments are picking up in the US in the wake of new national incentives that increase the value of the biofuel. President Joe Biden’s administration has challenged refiners and others in the supply chain to boost production of SAF to 3 billion gallons a year as part of an effort to cut aviation emissions 20% by 2030.

The global aviation industry accounts for about 3% of the gases warming the planet today, though the sector’s emissions are rising fast.

Malaysia Jan. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to EU 287,022 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

  • EU imported 287,022 tons; -12.9% m/m
  • India imported 165,000 tons; -43.2% m/m
  • South Africa imported 76,563 tons; -28.1% m/m
  • Turkey imported 72,155 tons; +31.2% m/m

US December Agricultural Prices Paid and Received





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