TFM Morning Update 02-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning to begin the month despite higher trade on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that the funds were profit taking at the end of January.
Yesterday, it was revealed that the US cattle herd has shrunken to the smallest numbers since 1951. This could have an impact on feed demand and pressure corn.
Today, the USDA will release its Fats and Oils report for December, and corn used for ethanol is expected to increase year over year by 11.4% to 474.4.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn is a wide range between 31 and 51 mb. There have been no flash sales reported recently and the number may be on the lower end.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from both lower soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal previously had 3 higher closes which helped support soybeans over the past two days.
Estimates for December’s Fats and Oils report see the soybean crush at 206.5 mb which would be a 10.2% increase from the previous year and a record high for any month.
Brazilian soybean premiums are still relatively low, but did firm up on Wednesday due to a lack of farmer selling. Those low premiums caused buyers in the US to import soybeans from Brazil.
Shipments on the Parana River in South America are still halted due to a bulk carrier crashing against a bridge, and this is slowing grain shipments in the country.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with both corn and soybeans. Despite higher corn prices yesterday, wheat was not able to post a higher close.
Estimates for today’s export sales report are low for wheat and are in a range between 10 and 16 mb. Russia remains the dominant global exporter.
Argentina has benefitted from largely friendly weather so far this season, but recently has had some dryness and heat that could affect their wheat crop.
India is also in jeopardy of warmer weather damaging its wheat crop with forecasts for the month of February warmer than normal while rains may be above normal.

Amanda Brill