TFM Morning Update 02-04-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower to start the day and seem to have met some resistance at the 21-day moving average, but they have trended higher since January 13. March is down 2-1/2 cents to $4.26 and December is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.55-1/4.
Brazil is reportedly on track for an increase in ethanol production in 2026, and they are already the world’s second largest producer. There will be more ethanol plants opened in the country, and ethanol prices have been profitable.
Corn used for ethanol in December was seen at 488.3 million bushels, which was up 1.84% from December 2024, and mills consumed 534 mb of corn which was a 1.3% increase over last year.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning giving back some of yesterday’s gains as private analyst firms continue to increase estimates for Brazilian soy production. March soybeans are down 3-1/2 cents to $10.62-1/4 while November is down 2-1/2 cents to $10.76-1/2. March soybean meal is down $2.80 to $289.10 and bean oil is unchanged at 54.49 cents.
The US Treasury has released its proposed rules for the 45z tac credit that increases biofuel use of corn and soybeans. The market needs this sort of demand driver, and this should drive prices higher when implemented.
US soybean crushing for the month of December came in better than expected at 229.9 million bushels which was up 5.6% from this time last year. Crude oil production was up 3.3% from last year.

All three wheat classes are lower to start the day. March Chicago wheat is down 3 cents to $5.25-3/4, KC is down 4-1/4 cents to $5.30-1/2, and Minn wheat is down 1 cent to $5.67-1/4.
US winter wheat crop conditions were released for February 1, and Kansas ratings improved slightly by 1 point to 61% good to excellent. Oklahoma ratings fell by 8 points to 23% good to excellent, and other states saw conditions drop as well.
Yesterday’s export inspections was mild for wheat at 327k tons inspected which compared to 379k last week and 253k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

Amanda Brill