TFM Morning Update 02-06-2024


  • March corn ended the day unchanged yesterday and this morning is trading slightly higher as non-commercials position themselves ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were on the lowest end of expectations at 24.6 mb but overall, exports are still 30% above last year’s pace.
  • Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
  • Weather has improved in Brazil, and second crop corn planting is underway with 27% complete in the central region which compares to 11% the previous week.


  • Soybeans finished the day higher yesterday and are higher again this morning following yesterday’s solid export inspections report.
  • So far this morning, soybean meal is lower which could pressure beans but soybean oil is higher with higher crude oil. Crush margins have improved slightly and are attractive to processors.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were impressive at 52.4 mb with 35.2 mb of that number headed to China. The bearish aspect is that total inspections are still down 24% from last year at this time.
  • The demand for soybean oil in Brazil is expected to rise significantly this year with a 27.5% increase in order to produce more biodiesel. They are expected to crush 7.4 mmt.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher, KC lower, and Minneapolis unchanged despite higher prices in both corn and soybeans.
  • With little fresh news in the wheat complex, futures are struggling to maintain their recent gains and are sliding with a lack of significant export sales.
  • In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
  • Shipments of wheat out of Brazil are moving at a good pace with 812.18 thousand tons wheat in January.


Amanda Brill

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