TFM Morning Update 02-07-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal down $0.09; Soyoil up 0.83.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.73; Soyoil up 0.71.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 9 3/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 2.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.6% in SRW, down 1.3% in HRW, down 2.3% in HRS; Corn is down 0.3%; Soybeans up 0.5%; Soymeal up 2.2%; Soyoil down 6.1%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal down 38; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 100; Corn down 18 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 88 ringgit (+2.29%) at 3939.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,723 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 797 Soybeans; 479 Soyoil; 37 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 6 were: SRW Wheat up 1,623 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,165, Corn up 9,396, Soybeans up 14,743, Soymeal up 4,805, Soyoil up 832.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

 Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

 Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers southeast Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

 Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated snow east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 The player sheet for Feb. 6 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.


  • CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 200,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 100,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2022, and the remaining 100,000 for 2023/24 delivery.
  • CORN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 111,800 tonnes of U.S. corn to Japan for 2022/23 delivery.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said in a statement on Saturday it had bought 60,000 tonnes of yellow corn.
  • FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued two international tenders to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
  • RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, GASC, is seeking at least 25,000 tonnes, plus or minus 10% at the buyer’s preference, of white rice in a tender-practice on the account of the Holding Company for Food Industries. Offers should be submitted on Feb. 14. Payment will be submitted on a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis in U.S. dollars, and will be at sight and via 180-day letters of credit. GASC will choose between either.


  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 19,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,439 tonnes of rice.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 48,100 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
  • CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, European traders said on Tuesday.


  • Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast inched higher on Monday on signs of fresh export demand while CIF soybean basis bids ticked lower, traders said.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in February were bid at 86 cents over March corn, up a penny from Friday.
    • FOB basis offers for February corn shipments were steady at around 90 cents over March futures, and offers for March shipments held at 99 cents over futures.
    • For soybeans, CIF barges loaded in February traded at 100 cents over March soybean futures and were re-bid at 98 cents over futures, down 4 cents from Friday’s last bid.
    • FOB offers for February soybean shipments held at around 120 cents over March futures, with March shipments unchanged at 112 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans delivered to processors and elevators around the U.S. Midwest were mostly steady on Monday.
    • Farmer sales were slow on Monday, with soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade lower on the day and corn futures closing below recent highs.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat held mostly steady at rail and truck market elevators across the southern U.S. Plains on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Farmer selling was minimal on Monday despite an uptick in futures prices.
  • Spot basis bids for U.S. soybeans were mostly steady at interior processors and elevators on Monday morning and steady to firmer at barge-loading river elevators, grain dealers said.
    • Spot corn basis bids were flat at elevator locations and steady to weaker at processing plants.
    • Farmer sales of corn and soybeans were slow on Monday morning as futures prices retreated.
    • Increased soybean marketings by farmers as prices rallied in late January boosted supplies at processing plants, prompting several to lower bids in recent days.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal were flat to lower around the U.S. Midwest on Monday as an improving crush pace bolstered supplies of the high-protein feed ingredient, dealers said.
    • Rail basis offers were down as much as $10 per ton.
    • Demand was muted amid elevated prices. U.S. soymeal futures rallied to their highest in nearly nine years on Friday.
    • Soymeal basis values at Gulf Coast export terminals were steady to lower.

US Inspected 480k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.83m of Soybean

In week ending Feb. 2, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Wheat: 536k tons vs 446k the previous wk, 434k a yr ago
  • Corn: 480k tons vs 543k the previous wk, 1,065k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 1,830k tons vs 1,931k the previous wk, 1,241k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 2

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 2 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.16m tons of the 1.83m total inspected
  • Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

Brazil Soybean, Corn Crop Survey Before Conab’s Report

The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey of as many as eight analysts for Brazil’s soybean and corn crops. Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Feb. 8 at 9am local time.

  • Planted area in millions of hectares, production in millions of tons, yields in thousands of kilograms per hectare:

Brazil 2022/23 Soy Harvest 9% Done as of Feb. 2: AgRural

This compares with 5% a week earlier and 16% a year ago, consulting firm AgRural said in an emailed report.

  • Mato Grosso state continueddave to harvest in few firm time intervals and lower moisture
  • In Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states, last week’s precipitation held the rhythm of the harvesters
  • In Rio Grande do Sul, hot and dry time continued reducing the potential of the crop
  • Center-South winter corn planting was 12% done as of Feb. 2, AgRural said at the same report
    • Planting was 5% a week earlier and 24% a year ago

Indonesia 2023 Palm Oil Output Seen at 52.5M Tons

Indonesia palm oil production seen rising to 52.5m tons this year, from 51.2m tons in 2022, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Board Acting Chairman, Sahat Sinaga, in a Tuesday briefing.

  • Output will not increase much this year due to higher fertilizer prices: Sinaga
  • 2023 output consists of 48.14m tons crude palm oil; 4.4m tons crude palm kernel oil
  • 2023 domestic palm oil consumption to be driven by higher food industry demand at 11m tons vs. 9.9m tons in 2022
    • Palm oil use for biodiesel to rise to est. 10m tons vs. 8.8m tons in 2022
    • Indonesia to consume about 45.6% of total palm oil output in 2023, up from 40.5% in 2022
  • Board urges govt to impose zero palm oil export tax until Eid holiday to ensure exports run smoothly
    • Board urges govt, via State Logistics Agency known as Bulog, to directly handle distribution of “cheap” cooking oil to retailers to ensure sufficient supply
    • Board asks govt to ease rules on importing used machinery for oleochemical processing to attract investments in the downstream palm oil industry

Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 29% Y/y in Season Through Feb. 6

Ukraine’s grain exports during the season that began July 1 totaled 27.7m tons as of Feb. 6, compared with 39.2m tons a year earlier, the country’s agriculture ministry says on its website.

Total includes:

  • 9.9m tons of wheat, down 42% y/y
  • 1.8m tons of barley, down 67% y/y
  • 15.9m tons of corn, down 1.5% y/y

China fines companies and individuals for illegal testing, sale of GMO crops -agri ministry

China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Tuesday it had fined six companies and individuals for violating rules related to the testing or selling of genetically modified corn and soybeans.

China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO corn but numerous companies are testing products.

Egypt to Boost Plantings of Sunflower, Soybean, Corn in 2024

Egypt targets cultivating 250k feddans of sunflowers next year, up from 90k, cabinet says in statement.

  • Planned increase in cotton cultivation to 500k feddans, from 325k
  • Soybean cultivation to rise from current 150k feddans; no 2024 figure given
  • Corn area to increase five-fold to 500k feddans as country raises local production of animal feed
  • NOTE: 1 feddan = about 1.038 acres

WHEAT/CEPEA: Quotations fade in Brazil; deals are sporadic

Wheat prices have been fading this month in most Brazilian regions surveyed by Cepea. Pressure on quotations comes from higher supply in the spot market (the harvest has set a record) and purchasers’ lower interest in closing deals. Not even the US dollar appreciation against the Real was able to underpin prices in the last days. In that scenario, deals have been occasional in Brazil.

Cepea surveys show that, between January 27 and February 3, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 0.31% in Paraná, 0.22% in Santa Catarina and 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 2.73% in PR and 1.02% in São Paulo, while in SC and in RS, quotations rose a slight 0.18% and 0.09%, respectively. In the same period, the US dollar increased 0.5%, to BRL 5.139 on Friday, 3.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between Jan. 23rd and 27th, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná State was USD 373.33/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.1465, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,921.34/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was lower, at BRL 1,688.43/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the import parity for the product from Argentina would be of USD 350.40/ton (BRL 1,803.33/ton), against BRL 1,462.94/ton on the average of the state surveyed by Cepea.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, in January (22 working days), Brazil imported 439.7 thousand tons of wheat, against 501.6 thousand tons in January/22. The import value averaged USD 356.2/ton FOB origin in Jan/23, 29.1% up from that a year before. Thus, after a record harvest in Brazil in 2022, imports have been lower in 2023, so far.

As for exports, Brazil shipped 561.5 thousand tons of wheat in January, 4.2% less than that from Jan/22 (586.3 thousand tons). The average price paid for the national product in Jan/23 closed at USD 324/t FOB origin, 9.9% up from that in Jan/22 (USD 294.7/ton).




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