TFM Morning Update 02-09-2024


  • Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s USDA report that showed growing US ending stocks and Brazilian corn production that was higher than expected.
  • The USDA said that corn ending stocks rose by 10 mb, but trade was looking for a slight decrease. They also pegged Brazil’s corn production at 124 mmt, far above CONAB’s guess of 114 mmt and above the average trade guess.
  • Following the El Nino weather pattern, a La Nina pattern is expected to develop in the second half of this year which could bring dry weather to North America.
  • The Argentinian corn crop was slightly damaged by the recent hot and dry spell, but upcoming rains are expected to reactivate the crop.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a bearish WASDE report yesterday. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower and are in downward trends.
  • At this point, March and November soybeans are set to post a loss on the week, and funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. There has been little motivation for funds to stop selling grains.
  • Yesterday’s USDA report showed US ending stocks increasing by more than expected to 315 mb from 280 mb in January as a result of lower exports.
  • There is a large discrepancy between the USDA’s Brazil production estimate of 156 mmt and CONAB’s estimate of 149 mmt. World ending stocks rose slightly.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago contract slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis wheat are trading lower. Yesterday’s WASDE report was slightly bearish.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that wheat ending stocks in the US were unchanged, but trade was expecting a lower number which caused a bearish reaction. World ending stocks fell slightly.
  • The Indian government announced that it would reduce the stock limits of wheat for traders and large chain retailers to avoid an artificial scarcity of wheat.
  • Non-commercials were estimated to have sold 6,000 contracts of wheat yesterday at a time where ending stock estimates are at their tightest levels since 2015.


Amanda Brill

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