TFM Morning Update 02-09-2026

CORN

Corn futures are slightly lower this morning following Friday’s test of overhead technical resistance. March corn futures are down 2 cents at $4.28-1/4, while new-crop December corn futures are off 1-1/2 cents at $4.56-1/4.
Ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report, estimates call for U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.215 billion bushels, slightly below USDA’s January projection. On the global balance sheet, ending stocks are expected to edge higher, with Argentine production seen modestly lower while Brazilian output is projected to increase.
Export Sales data show total corn export commitments at 58.735 mmt, running 31% above the same period last year. That represents 72% of USDA’s full-year export projection and remains slightly ahead of the 71% average seasonal pace.

Soybean futures are starting the week modestly lower this morning as the market consolidates following last week’s sharp advance. March soybean futures are down 4-3/4 cents at $11.10-1/2, while new-crop November soybeans are off 4-1/4 cents at $10.89-3/4.
Estimates ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report call for U.S. 25/26 soybean ending stocks to edge slightly lower to 348 million bushels. Globally, ending stocks are expected to increase by around 1.0 mmt, with Argentine production seen lower while Brazilian output is projected to rise to 179.2 mmt.
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is expected to produce 181.6 million metric tons in 2025/26, according to StoneX. The consultancy raised its outlook as harvest activity continues to progress across key growing regions.

The wheat complex is mixed to mostly lower to start the session. March Chicago wheat futures are down 1-3/4 cents at $5.28, Kansas City wheat futures are off 3-1/4 cents at $5.28, while MIAX spring wheat futures are modestly higher, up 1-1/2 cents at $5.71-1/2.
Estimates ahead of the WASDE report call for U.S. 25/26 wheat ending stocks to edge slightly lower to 918 mb. Globally, ending stocks are expected to trend modestly higher, though significant balance-sheet changes are not anticipated in this report.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, global grain production is projected to reach a record 3.02 billion metric tons, supported in part by stronger-than-expected wheat yields in Argentina, Canada, and the EU. The FAO also projects the global stocks-to-use ratio for the 25/26 season at 31.8%, which would mark the highest level since 2001.

Matthew Lucas