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Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.17; Soyoil up 0.36.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 1/4 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $0.44; Soyoil up 0.17.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 16 1/4; Soymeal up $7.80; Soyoil down 2.96.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.8% in SRW, down 0.3% in HRW, down 1.7% in HRS; Corn is down 0.8%; Soybeans up 0.2%; Soymeal up 3.0%; Soyoil down 6.9%.
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Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans up 20 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 122; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 42 ringgit (-1.06%) at 3931.
There were changes in registrations (-198 Soybeans, -12 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,723 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 599 Soybeans; 467 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 9 were: SRW Wheat up 1,423 contracts, HRW Wheat up 679, Corn up 12,672, Soybeans down 1,644, Soymeal up 12,081, Soyoil up 4,081.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.
The player sheet for Feb. 9 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.
- CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 67,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from South America in an international tender seeking up to 70,000 tonnes on Thursday
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
- WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought around 360,000 to 390,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender this week.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 48,100 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,439 tonnes of rice
- CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
- RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, GASC, is seeking at least 25,000 tonnes, plus or minus 10% at the buyer’s preference, of white rice in a tender-practice on the account of the Holding Company for Food Industries. Offers should be submitted on Feb. 14. Payment will be submitted on a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis in U.S. dollars, and will be at sight and via 180-day letters of credit. GASC will choose between either.
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by May 31 and arrive in Japan by July 27, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Feb. 15.
- Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady on Thursday, anchored by falling costs for barge freight and a sluggish export sales pace, traders said.
- Spot barges on the Illinois River were bid at 510% of tariff on Thursday, down from 525% on Wednesday and down from 625% a week ago, reflecting a lack of bidders for empty barges, traders said.
- CIF corn barges loaded in February were bid at 77 cents over March corn, unchanged from Wednesday’s last bid. Corn barges loaded in March traded actively at 85 cents over futures and were re-bid at 84 cents over futures, steady with Wednesday.
- FOB basis offers for February corn shipments were around 88 cents over March futures, unchanged from Wednesday, and offers for March shipments were around 93 cents over futures, down a penny.
- For soybeans, CIF barges loaded in February traded at 95 cents over March soybean futures and were re-bid at the same level, up 1 cent from Wednesday’s late bid. March soy barges also were bid at 95 cents over futures.
- FOB offers for February soybean shipments were around 115 cents over futures, steady with Wednesday, while March shipments were offered around 110 cents over futures, up 2 cents.
- Spot basis bids for corn eased on Thursday at river terminals and elevators west of the Mississippi River, while soybean basis was mixed, grain dealers said.
- Cash corn bids fell at a river terminal in Davenport, Iowa, and a Council Bluffs, Iowa, elevator.
- Soybean basis firmed at an elevator in Lafayette, Indiana, but fell at a Morris, Illinois, river terminal.
- Spot basis bids for U.S. corn softened at processors, river terminals and ethanol plants on Thursday, grain dealers said.
- Corn basis eased at processors in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Blair, Nebraska, and a Union City, Indiana ethanol plant, as well as at a river terminal in Davenport, Iowa.
- Corn bids firmed at a river terminal in Savanna, Illinois.
- Soybean bids eased in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Lincoln, Nebraska, as well as river terminals in Seneca, Illinois, and Savanna, Illinois.
- Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady at rail and truck market elevators in the southern U.S. Plains on Thursday, grain dealers said.
- Forecasts for rain across parts of the U.S. Plains could aid parched winter wheat in the region, adding pressure to futures prices.
- Protein premiums for hard red winter wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City fell 20 cents for wheat with protein content ranging from 12% to 14%, according to CME Group data.
- All other grades of wheat were unchanged.
- Spot basis offers eased for soymeal loaded onto barges upriver of the U.S. Gulf on Thursday, while offers at rail terminals across the U.S. Midwest were steady-to-weaker, dealers said.
- Offers at truck terminals were steady, as were offers at the U.S. Gulf.
US Agriculture Export Sales for Week Ending Feb. 2
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 2, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 12.7k tons of the 28.8k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
Argentine Bourse Cuts Soy Est. to 38m Tons, Following Rosario
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its soy production estimate to 38m metric tons after the Rosario Board of Trade slashed its forecast by 7% on Wednesday.
- A drought will curb yields by up to 40% in key areas
- If high temperatures and dryness persist, Buenos Aires analysts will trim the estimate again
- Farmers have begun harvesting the early corn crop, which was hit hard by the drought
- The late corn crop is doing much better, but requires more rain to maintain its yield potential
India Palm Oil Imports Seen at 6-Mth Low on Cold Weather: Sunvin
Inbound shipments last month probably fell to their lowest since July as cold weather prompted traders and processors to cut purchases, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of consultancy firm Sunvin Group.
- India’s imports are estimated to have fallen to 762,928 tons in January from 1.1m tons in December; purchases in January 2022 were 553,084 tons
- Tanks in India are overflowing with palm because of heavy imports earlier, Bajoria said by phone. “We needed to rationalize purchases,” he said, adding that palm imports also slowed due to the winter
- NOTE: The world’s top edible oil buyer usually cuts palm consumption during winter months because the oil becomes cloudy or gets solidified when temperatures plummet; users generally switch to oils that look transparent and don’t crystallize
- Imports comprised 561,224 tons of crude palm oil, 193,704 tons of RBD palm olein and 8,000 tons of palm kernel oil last month
- Soybean oil purchases rose to 399,213 tons from 252,525 tons; sunflower shipments were 448,110 tons vs 194,009 tons
- Total vegetable oil imports in January totaled 1.61m tons vs 1.57m tons in December
- NOTE: The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India will release its vegetable oil import data in the middle of February
- Palm oil imports in January were 830,000 tons, according to Rajesh Patel, managing partner of GGN Research
- India bought 376,000 tons of soybean oil and 455,000 tons of sunflower oil last month: Patel
- Edible oil imports in December totaled 1.66m tons
Malaysia Jan. Palm Stockpiles +3.3% M/m to 2.27M Tons: MPOB
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 3.3% to 2.27 million tons in January from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
- Palm oil exports -23% m/m to 1.14m tons
- Imports +123.3% m/m to 144,937 tons
- Crude palm oil production -14.7% m/m to 1.38m tons
GOP Senators Blocked in Bid to Overturn Biofuel Waiver Denials
The EPA’s decision to deny 69 small refineries exemptions from federal requirements to add biofuel to diesel and gasoline can’t be easily overturned by Congress, according to a procedural ruling Thursday.
- The Government Accountability Office said the waiver denial isn’t considered a “rule” and therefore is immune from being nullified with a disapproval resolution advanced on a simple majority vote under the Congressional Review Act
- The decision removes another avenue for oil refining advocates to challenge the waiver rejections under the Renewable Fuel Standard program
- Republican Senators Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Roger Wicker of Mississippi had requested the GAO decision
- NOTE: On Jan. 27, the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals issued a stay suspending some biofuel-blending obligations for San Antonio Refinery LLC and Calumet Shreveport Refining LLC, after finding their legal challenge of the EPA waiver denial was likely to be successful
Lawmakers Push Biden to Advance Ethanol Plan Before Summer
The EPA has flouted a legal deadline to make a policy shift designed to enable greater sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline, 31 lawmakers said Thursday, as they appealed to the Biden administration to swiftly finalize the change before the 2023 summer driving season.
- Midwestern governors sought the shift under the Clean Air Act on April 28 last year, triggering a 90-day window under the law for the EPA’s response, but nearly a year later, a rule hasn’t been issued, the lawmakers said in a letter to EPA Administrator Michael Regan and Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young
- “The 2023 summer driving season is quickly approaching and action is necessary to provide certainty to the marketplace,” said Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, Senator Tammy Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat, and other members of the House and Senate who represent Midwestern states
- NOTE: The White House is under increasing pressure to respond to the governors’ petition to stop giving conventional E10 gasoline a waiver from volatility requirements in their states
France’s Rouen Grain Exports Fall 60% in Week to Feb. 8
Grain exports from France’s Rouen port totaled 43,561m tons, compared with 109,064 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.
- Loadings by destination (in tons):
- Soft wheat
- UK 1,300 tons
- Cameroon 7,700 tons
- Ivory Coast 6,600 tons
- Mali 7,600 tons
- Burkina Faso 6,600 tons
- Spain 9,900
- Malt barley
- Netherlands 3,861
Lower Fertilizer Prices Unlikely to Alter Planting Picture
Fertilizer prices have been gradually coming back to Earth in recent months, following the drop in natural gas futures. The fertilizer price index from Green Markets has shed 27% in the past three months, as a warm winter in Europe has limited the amount of natural gas used for heating there. However, while easing fertilizer prices are good news for farmers, many will be unable to make new planting decisions for the spring based on them, says Ken Zuckerberg of CoBank. “Most farmers have already pre-paid for a sizable portion of their 2023 fertilizer needs based on their crop plans, and thus unlikely to switch acres now,” says Zuckerberg in a research note. He adds that corn acres usually include prep work done in the fall, so a change in strategy is tough when farmers are aiming for maximum yields.
Grain Shipments on Mississippi River Fell 9% Last Week: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 569k tons in the week ending Feb. 4 from 627k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn fell 25% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments down 3% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $18.54 per short ton, a decline of $0.24 from the previous week
U.S. forecasters sees start of neutral weather pattern in next couple of months
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.
ENSO neutral conditions refer to those periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns.
Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the forecaster said.
The La Niña weather pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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