TFM Morning Update 02-10-2026

CORN

Corn futures are mixed to start the session, with nearby contracts edging higher while deferred months slipped modestly. March corn futures are up 1/2 cent at $4.29-1/4, while new-crop December futures are down 1/4 cent at $4.57.
Ahead of today’s WASDE report, estimates call for U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.215 billion bushels, slightly below USDA’s January projection. On the global balance sheet, ending stocks are expected to edge higher, with Argentine production seen modestly lower while Brazilian output is projected to increase.
USDA released weekly export inspections Monday morning. For the week ending February 5, inspections totaled 1.308 mmt (51.5 mb), coming in above the high end of trade expectations. While the recent pace has moderated, cumulative inspections remain strong, running 47% ahead of last year.

Soybean futures are modestly higher to start the session as the market awaits additional information from today’s WASDE report. March soybean futures are up 2-1/4 cents at $11.13, while new-crop November soybeans are higher by 1-1/2 cents at $10.97-1/4.
Estimates ahead of today’s WASDE report call for U.S. 25/26 soybean ending stocks to edge slightly lower to 348 million bushels. Globally, ending stocks are expected to increase by around 1.0 mmt, with Argentine production seen lower while Brazilian output is projected to rise to 179.2 mmt.
USDA announced a flash sale of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 25/26 marketing year on Monday. The sale followed comments from President Trump last week on Truth Social urging China to purchase an additional 8 mmt of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, on top of the 12 mmt already committed. To date, there has been no formal confirmation from China regarding any additional purchase commitments beyond the reported flash sale.

The wheat complex is trading slightly lower across the board this morning. March Chicago wheat futures are down 1-1/2 cents at $5.27-1/4, Kansas City wheat futures are off 1/4 cent at $5.28-1/2, and MGEX spring wheat futures are lower by 1-1/4 cents at $5.69-1/4.
Estimates ahead of the WASDE report call for U.S. 25/26 wheat ending stocks to edge slightly lower to 918 mb. Globally, ending stocks are expected to trend modestly higher, though significant balance-sheet changes are not anticipated in this report.
Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 21.3 mb, lifting cumulative 25/26 inspections to 637 mb, up 21% from last year. Shipments continue to run ahead of USDA’s projected pace, with 25/26 wheat exports forecast at 900 mb, an increase of 9% year over year.

Matthew Lucas