TFM Morning Update 02-12-2024

CORN

March corn is trading higher this morning but still remains just a few cents off its contract low with the expectation of large South American supplies.
In Brazil, farmers are selling very little corn as they remain hopeful that prices will improve with possible lower production in 23/24.
Rains have begun to fall in Argentina and continue to fall throughout Brazil. The Argentinian rains are crucial after a period of hot and dry weather.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 17,593 contracts of corn leaving them with a nearly record net short position of 297,744 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn as prices attempt to rebound after Friday’s poor close and overall bearishness from the WASDE report.
More Brazilian farm land is being sold to larger companies such as BrasilAgro due to low prices causing farmers to reduce their planted areas.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated to be around 23.83% complete for the 23/24 marketing year which compares to 17.39% at this time last year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 22,053 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 130,300 contracts, the largest since 2019.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning despite higher corn and soybeans as US winter wheat quality benefits from improved weather.
In Ukraine, wheat production has been assessed and showed that while winter wheat acres are down, they will likely be replaced with spring wheat for total acres to be unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 1,920 contracts which has left them with a net short position of 66,738 contracts.

Amanda Brill