TFM Morning Update 02-13-2024


  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after posting a small gain yesterday, but prices remain near contract lows.
  • On Thursday, the USDA will begin its Outlook Conference for 2024 which will likely end up showing increased ending stocks with a trend line yield of around 183 bpa, above 2023’s record yield of 177.3 bpa.
  •  Yesterday. corn inspections totaled 34.6 mb for the week ending February 8. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 577 mb which is up 31% from the previous year.
  • Brazil’s safrinha corn crop production estimates have been raised by 5 mmt to 91.2 mmt with increased planted acreage and improved weather conditions.


  • Soybeans are slightly lower this morning after a rebound yesterday. Lower soybean meal is adding pressure while soybean oil is higher along with crude oil.
  • Yesterday, soybeans got support from the export inspections report which showed 48.7 mb of soybeans inspected which was above expectations. Total inspections are now at 1,131 mb, down 23% from last year.
  • In the USDA’s crop outlook forum, 24/25 crops are expected to be similar in size to last year, but fewer corn acres could be planted in favor of more soybeans and wheat.
  • Malaysian palm oil stocks fall by 11.83% at the end of January with exports falling by 0.85%. The decline in stocks is positive for soybean oil.


  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices remain rangebound and traders struggle to find news that will cause the complex to rally.
  • In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings fell to 42% good to excellent from 46% the previous week, but the poor to very poor rating fell from 20% to 19%.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were better than the previous week for wheat at 15 mb, and there were cargoes to China, but total inspections are still down 18% from last year.
  • In Russia, the Ag Ministry has proposed to raise its grain export quota to 28 mmt from 24 mmt for 2024 with a separate quota for wheat.


Amanda Brill

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