TFM Morning Update 02-13-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after posting a small gain yesterday, but prices remain near contract lows.
On Thursday, the USDA will begin its Outlook Conference for 2024 which will likely end up showing increased ending stocks with a trend line yield of around 183 bpa, above 2023’s record yield of 177.3 bpa.
Yesterday. corn inspections totaled 34.6 mb for the week ending February 8. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 577 mb which is up 31% from the previous year.
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop production estimates have been raised by 5 mmt to 91.2 mmt with increased planted acreage and improved weather conditions.

Soybeans are slightly lower this morning after a rebound yesterday. Lower soybean meal is adding pressure while soybean oil is higher along with crude oil.
Yesterday, soybeans got support from the export inspections report which showed 48.7 mb of soybeans inspected which was above expectations. Total inspections are now at 1,131 mb, down 23% from last year.
In the USDA’s crop outlook forum, 24/25 crops are expected to be similar in size to last year, but fewer corn acres could be planted in favor of more soybeans and wheat.
Malaysian palm oil stocks fall by 11.83% at the end of January with exports falling by 0.85%. The decline in stocks is positive for soybean oil.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices remain rangebound and traders struggle to find news that will cause the complex to rally.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings fell to 42% good to excellent from 46% the previous week, but the poor to very poor rating fell from 20% to 19%.
Yesterday’s export inspections were better than the previous week for wheat at 15 mb, and there were cargoes to China, but total inspections are still down 18% from last year.
In Russia, the Ag Ministry has proposed to raise its grain export quota to 28 mmt from 24 mmt for 2024 with a separate quota for wheat.

Amanda Brill