TFM Morning Update 02-13-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as it remains in its trading range with the March contract between $4.80 and $5.00. Improved weather in South America has kept both corn and soybeans from rallying further.
Corn demand has begun to slip as the US exits its export window, but yesterday, a sale of 130,320 mt of corn was reported to unknown destinations. The weekly ethanol EIA petroleum status report saw slightly lower ethanol production at 1.082 million bpd.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,363k. This would compare to 1,527k a week ago and 1,309k a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after significant losses yesterday and are on track for a third consecutive lower close, but may find some support at $10.25, the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with an average guess of 494k tons. This would compare to 388k last week and 308k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are higher to start the day and have held up surprisingly well as corn has faltered and soybeans have turned lower. Wheat is undervalued compared to corn and may have a reason to rally further with global production concerns.
Global weather uncertainty could be providing support, with dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia and colder temperatures expected next week in both Russia and the U.S. Plains.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 424k tons. This would compare to 486k last week and 397k a year ago.

Amanda Brill