TFM Morning Update 02-14-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after posting small gains both Monday and Tuesday.
Ukraine reportedly sunk a Russian military vessel near Crimea Wednesday morning. The market has appeared to pay little attention in the past months to the Russian/Ukraine conflict.
Showers are expected to be widespread and heavy for much of Brazil by this weekend. Southern Brazil, which is in need of rain the most, will turn back to a drier pattern next week.
The US had 1.9 million farms in 2022, a 6.9% drop from five years ago and the lowest since 1992, according to data from the USDA’s Census of Agriculture. The total acreage used in farms dropped about 2.2% from five years ago as well. The average age of producers continued to climb, reaching 58.1 years in 2022.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning down to new lows for its recent move lower.
Heavy rain returned to Argentina’s crop producing regions this week easing the hot and dry conditions that plagued many areas for about the last month. Another round of storms is expected to move in this weekend.
US soybean crush is forecast to slow in January (from the record months of November and December) as a mid-month record cold snap disrupted operations at several processing plants. The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 am CST on Thursday.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production forecast this week to 147 mmt. Many estimates out of South America continue to peg the Brazilian crop near or below the 150 mmt level versus the USDA’s February estimate at 156 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices remain rangebound. Lower prices in corn and soybeans are adding pressure as well this morning.
Nearby spreads in all three wheat contracts are at very small carries or inverted. This along with stronger trending basis levels is generally an attempt by the market to encourage selling and discourage storage.
Ukrainian grain producers are expected to plant 2% more wheat and 7% more barley acres than last year according to a Ukraine Agriculture Ministry survey recently conducted.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries is looking to buy a total of 115,035 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia in a regular tender that will close on February 15th.

Keegan Madigan