TFM Morning Update 02-15-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day.



  • Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s lower close that set a new contract low for March corn. December is at its lowest levels since October 2021.
  • This morning, the USDA released it’s outlook forum numbers which were within expectations. Expected planted corn acres were reduced by 3 million acres to 91.0 ma. This is down from last year’s 94.6 ma.
  • According to the outlook forum, with the decrease in planted acres but an increase in expected trendline yield to 181.0 bpa, ending stocks for 24/25 are forecast to increase to 2,532 mb.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 4.2% to 25.81m bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly report. Plant production was above the average estimates at 1.083m b/d.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as well after a poor close yesterday as funds continued to add to their short position selling an estimated 6,500 contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
  • This morning’s outlook forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. This was within trade expectations.
  • With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.
  • US January soybean crush is expected at 189.7 mb which would be 6% higher than January of last year but 2.9% lower than last month’s record number.


  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after sharp losses yesterday which saw KC wheat hit new contract lows.
  • This morning’s outlook forum numbers from the USDA showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma the previous year.
  • In France, soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44.
  • Russia is currently harvesting a huge wheat crop and is running into shipping issues with limited capacity in its grain elevators as they need to store over 166 million tonnes of grain.


Amanda Brill

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