TFM Morning Update 02-15-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day.

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s lower close that set a new contract low for March corn. December is at its lowest levels since October 2021.
This morning, the USDA released it’s outlook forum numbers which were within expectations. Expected planted corn acres were reduced by 3 million acres to 91.0 ma. This is down from last year’s 94.6 ma.
According to the outlook forum, with the decrease in planted acres but an increase in expected trendline yield to 181.0 bpa, ending stocks for 24/25 are forecast to increase to 2,532 mb.
US ethanol stocks rose by 4.2% to 25.81m bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly report. Plant production was above the average estimates at 1.083m b/d.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as well after a poor close yesterday as funds continued to add to their short position selling an estimated 6,500 contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
This morning’s outlook forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. This was within trade expectations.
With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.
US January soybean crush is expected at 189.7 mb which would be 6% higher than January of last year but 2.9% lower than last month’s record number.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after sharp losses yesterday which saw KC wheat hit new contract lows.
This morning’s outlook forum numbers from the USDA showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma the previous year.
In France, soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44.
Russia is currently harvesting a huge wheat crop and is running into shipping issues with limited capacity in its grain elevators as they need to store over 166 million tonnes of grain.

Amanda Brill