TFM Morning Update 02-16-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day.

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning following two consecutively poor closes this week as funds likely engage in some profit taking ahead of the long weekend.
Yesterday’s export sales report was within expectations and maintains this year’s exports well above last year at this time, but most of the business has gone to Mexico with the country as the top buyer with 421k tons last week.
The estimate for global corn production in the 23/24 season was increased by 4 mmt to 1.23 billion tons. For 24/25, corn planted acreage is expected to increase.

Soybeans are trading higher as well this morning following the past two days where 24 cents were lost in the March contract between Wednesday and Thursday. Soybean meal is higher this morning while soybean oil is lower along with lower crude.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed crush numbers falling slightly from the previous month with narrowing crush margins. January crush came in at 185.78 million bushels which was below last month but still a record high for January.
Argentina began receiving rains at the beginning of this week and there has already been a large improvement in the quality of the soy crop there following the hot and dry spell. The soy crop is 100% planted at this point.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as they refuse to follow the trend in corn and soybeans. March Chicago wheat had been in a tight trading range but has broken out to the downside over the past three trading sessions.
The soft wheat crop in France is now in worse condition than the 2023 crop with just 68% rated good to excellent as of February 12. At this time last year, the crop was rated at 93% good to excellent.
Australia is currently forecast to be hit by a third tropical cyclone within two months with a system forming off the northern coast and could make landfall near Queensland. This could be detrimental to the wheat crop there.

Amanda Brill