TFM Morning Update 02-18-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning despite losses in both soybeans and wheat and remains near the highs of its recent trading range.
In Argentina, the corn crop conditions were updated showing that the stretch of dry weather impacted crop ratings. 7 points were cut from the good to excellent conditions with 67% of the crop rated normal to regular and 33% poor to very poor.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 31,828 contracts as of February 11 which lowered their net long position to 332,389 contracts. Overall, funds are still near their record long position.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning, but have rebounded from overnight lows which saw prices as much as 10 cents lower. Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower.
South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

All three wheat classes are lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way down. On Friday, March Chicago wheat rallied up to its 200-day moving average which seems to be acting as resistance.
Global weather uncertainty could be providing support, with dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia and colder temperatures expected this week in both Russia and the U.S. Plains.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 7,633 contracts of Chicago wheat leaving them with a net short position of 82,809 contracts. They were buyers of 5,733 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 30,248 contracts.

Amanda Brill