TFM Morning Update 02-19-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning and are being supported by higher wheat prices. Corn has mainly been a follower over the past month. March is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.27-1/4 while December is up 1/4 cent to $4.60-1/4.
Analysts are expecting larger changes in the end of the months planting intentions report. A Bloomberg survey shows that analysts expect corn plantings to come in 3.8 million acres below last year’s in favor of more soybean acres. Corn planted acreage is called at 95.0 ma.
Yesterday’s export inspections report was bullish for corn but hardly impacted the market. Inspections were 1,492k tons, above expectations, and compared to 1,610k last week and 1,623k a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Soybean futures are trading slightly higher this morning but may have met some resistance at the $11.40 level for March. March soybeans are up 1-3/4 cents to $11.35-1/4 while November is up 1/2 cent to $11.17. March soybean meal is down $0.30 to $303.60 and bean oil is up 0.29 cents to 58.88 cents.
The Outlook Forum has estimated that farmers will likely plant 85.0 million acres of soybeans this season, up from 81.2 ma last year with lower corn acres. Trendline yield is 53.0 bpa which would leave ending stocks tight at 355 mb.
In Brazil, weather in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul had been struggling with hot and dry weather that may have impacted yields, but recent rains have brought relief with over 40 mm of precipitation falling.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, and March Chicago wheat has now broken significantly through its 200-day moving average. March Chi is up 7 cents to $5.54, KC is up 6-3/4 cents to $5.57-3/4, and Minn is up 4-1/2 cents to $5.78-1/2.
The Ag Outlook Forum had few changes for wheat estimating planted acreage at 45.0 ma, down from 45.3 last season. Trendline yield is 50.8 bpa which would lead to ending stocks at 933 mb.
In Ukraine, farmer unions are saying that a cold snap across most of Ukraine following a thaw has led to ice forming on fields that will likely cause damage to the winter wheat crop. The country’s winter wheat crop accounts for 95% of production.

Amanda Brill