TFM Morning Update 02-21-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after posting slight gains yesterday. March futures are now 7 cents off their recent high, and are technically overbought. First notice day for March futures is 2/28.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,375k tons. This would compare to 1,999k a week ago and 998k a year ago at this time.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2% according to yesterday’s report to 26.218m bbl, ands analysts were expecting 25.731m. Plant production came in at 1.084m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.078m.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after higher trade yesterday, but prices have been rangebound over the past week and have been unable to rally significantly due to slipping demand. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 100k and 500k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 210k last week and 56k a year ago.
Agroconsult has cut their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 mmt but the new estimate is still a record at 171.3 mmt. This would be 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop with the center North region making up most of the gains.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Wheat futures have been trending higher since the end of December as winter kill in the US concerns traders.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average estimate of 472k tons. This would compare to 606k last week and 280k a year ago.
In France, 2025 wheat plantings are up 10% on improved weather with 6.35 million hectares of winter grains planted for the 2025 harvest. This is up 7.2% from last year’s plantings.

Amanda Brill