TFM Morning Update 02-23-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 in SRW, down 30 1/2 in HRW, down 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $0.06; Soyoil up 1.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 21 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $7.00; Soyoil up 0.83.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.1% in SRW, down 1.8% in HRW, down 2.5% in HRS; Corn is down 0.6%; Soybeans up 1.1%; Soymeal up 2.6%; Soyoil down 1.1%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans up 8 yuan; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil up 12; Corn down 2 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 89 ringgit (+2.15%) at 4235.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 302 Soybeans; 467 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 152 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 22 were: SRW Wheat down 4,195 contracts, HRW Wheat down 8,821, Corn down 16,876, Soybeans down 12,130, Soymeal up 219, Soyoil down 4,102.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday, north Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Heavy snow into Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday night. Temperatures well below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers southeast Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures well below normal north and well above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near to well below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Outlook: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mixed precipitation through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to well below normal Thursday-Saturday, below normal north and above normal south Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mixed precipitation Wednesday-Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday. Outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

The player sheet for Feb. 22 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.


  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Wednesday it bought 240,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in an international tender for shipment April 1-15.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 94,387 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Wednesday.
  • BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, traders said.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy around 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat with participation restricted to a limited number of trading houses.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 440,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 48,975 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
  • CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins


  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,439 tonnes of rice
  • CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced from Argentina
  • VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival April 1-20. The deadline for offers is Feb. 23.
  • SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 48,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 790,000 tonnes of milling wheat.


  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export were mostly lower on Wednesday on seasonally slowing demand, while CIF corn basis bids were flat to weaker.
    • Top soybean importer China has been booking near term shipments from Brazil this week, including some April cargoes on Wednesday, a trader said.
    • CIF February soy barges were bid at about 85 cents over March futures, down cents from Tuesday. March soybean barges traded at 87 cents over futures, down 3 cents.
    • FOB offers for February and March soybean shipments were each around 105 cents over March futures, unchanged.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in February were bid about 76 cents over March corn futures, down 2 cents. Corn barges loaded in March were bid steady at around 80 cents over futures.
    • FOB basis offers for February and March corn shipments held at around 85 cents over March futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn fell at U.S. Midwest rail terminals for the second day in a row on Wednesday, grain dealers said.
    • At truck elevators, the corn basis was steady to firm, rising by 2 cents a bushel in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
    • Corn bids were flat at processors and river terminals.
    • The soybean basis was unchanged at processors, elevators and river terminals.
  • Spot basis bids for corn fell at U.S. Midwest ethanol plants early on Wednesday, grain dealers said.
    • The corn basis was unchanged at the region’s grain elevators, processors river terminals.
    • The soybean basis was flat at river terminals and processors.
    • Cash bids for soybeans were steady to weak at elevators, falling by 5 cents a bushel in Cincinnati, Ohio.
    • Farmer sales were slow on Wednesday morning.
    • But dealers were able to keep basis levels mostly steady as farmers have booked good amounts of soybean sales throughout much of February, an Iowa dealer said.
  • Spot cash millfeed values held mostly steady around the United States on Wednesday, capped by rising supplies as accelerated flour mill run times bolstered production of the wheat-based feed ingredient, dealers said.
    • Nearby supplies had tightened in some markets due to mill downtime during the Presidents’ Day holiday weekend. Mills are now ramping up production.
    • But millfeed demand was limited as elevated prices over the past two to three months have prompted feed mixers to switch to cheaper alternatives. But dealers expect millfeed to regain a larger share of feed rations as prices ease.
    • Transportation delays due to a winter storm in the northern United States underpinned millfeed prices in some markets, including in Minneapolis and Chicago.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal held steady at both rail and truck market processors on Wednesday, dealers said.
    • Demand was light, with cash prices still greater than $500 a ton in most areas despite weakness in the futures market.
    • Dealers said that some end users were looking for alternative sources of protein due to the high prices.

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 17 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen higher than last week at 1.02m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 25.399m bbl vs 25.339m a week ago
  • The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 11:00am Thursday

Ukraine Seeks to Extend Black Sea Grain-Export Deal by One Year

Ukraine wants to extend the grain corridor agreement by at least one year to let market participants plan ahead, according to a government statement citing comments by Deputy Infrastructure Minister Yuriy Vaskov to Al Jazeera.

  • The negotiation process to renew the agreement which ends in mid-March has already started with Turkey and the UN
  • Ukraine is waiting for partners’ proposals
  • Since October, the grain deal — which allows crop exports from three of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports — has been using no more than a third of available capacity

WHEAT/CEPEA: Liquidity is low in BR, but prices are firm

Wheat sales have been low in Brazil. Besides the carnival, agents from many mills are still away from the market, signaling to have the product in stock. Other purchasers are aware of the possible needs of farmers and cooperatives to make room in warehouses to receive higher volumes of the summer crop, which may raise supply and press down quotations.

Still, prices remained firm in the last days. Cepea surveys show that, between February 10 and 17, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.59% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.25% in Santa Catarina, but remained stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 0.79% in São Paulo, 0.32% in SC and 0.06% in RS but dropped 0.12% in PR. In the same period, the US dollar decreased 1.2%, to BRL 5.162 on February 17.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between February 6 and 10, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná State was USD 364.4/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.2061, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,897.12/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was lower, at BRL 1,658.28/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the import parity for the product from Argentina would be of USD 341.99/ton (BRL 1,780.44/ton), against BRL 1,466.23/ton on the average of the state surveyed by Cepea.

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS – According to Secex, this month (until the second week), Brazil has imported 87.8 thousand tons of wheat, against 498.7 thousand tons in February last year (considering all working days). Import values averaged USD 362.2/ton FOB Origin, 27.6% higher than that in Feb/22 (USD 283.9/ton).

Brazilian wheat exports totaled 304.6 thousand tons, against 820.2 thousand tons in Feb/22. Export values are at USD 319.8/ton FOB at the port, 7.5% higher than that in Feb/22 (USD 297.7/ton).

Brazil’s Feb. soy exports seen lower at up to 8.3 mln T -Anec

Brazil’s soybean exports in February are estimated at up to 8.3 million tonnes, a drop from the same period last year amid a slower harvest in 2023, according to data from grain exporters association Anec released on Wednesday.

Up until last week, Anec projected soybean exports of up to 9.39 million tonnes this month, a volume that would surpass the 9.1 million tonnes of February 2022.

The estimate is based on the total volume already shipped this month and the forecast of shipments for the next few days.

The volume of 8.3 million tonnes regards the top of the range of the forecast. At the lowest end, Brazil would export 7.6 million tonnes of soybeans in February.

Anec did not detail the reasons for the reduction. By Thursday of last week, Brazil had harvested about a quarter of its soybean area, versus 33% at the same time last year.

However, the total area planted in the current crop grew 4.4% to 43.3 million hectares (107 million acres), according to data from the national supply company Conab.

Corn exports for February were estimated at 1.99 million tonnes, down from last week’s forecast of 2.11 million, but still above the 1.5 million tonnes exported a year ago.

Brazil’s soymeal exports were estimated at 1.54 million tonnes, versus 1.86 million tonnes in the previous week’s estimate. If confirmed, the country’s shipments would be flat from February 2022.

Wheat exports from Brazil in February should reach 670,400 tonnes, still below the more than 900,000 tonnes of February 2022, but above the previous week’s projection of 489,600 tonnes.

Brazil to halt beef exports to China after mad cow disease case

Brazil’s beef exports to China will be halted starting Thursday after a case of mad cow disease was confirmed in the northern state of Para, the country’s agriculture and livestock ministry said on Wednesday.

The suspension is part of an animal health pact previously agreed between China and Brazil and is expected to be temporary. It is a blow to Brazilian farmers, as China is the main destination for Brazil’s beef exports.

“All measures are being taken immediately at each stage of the investigation and the matter is being handled with total transparency to guarantee Brazilian and global consumers the recognized quality of our meat,” said Minister Carlos Favaro.

A case of the disease, formally called bovine spongiform encephalitis, was confirmed earlier by Para’s agricultural defense agency.

“The symptomatology indicates that it is the atypical form of the disease, which appears spontaneously in nature, causing no risk of dissemination to the herd and to humans,” the agency said in a statement.

The sick animal was on a property with 160 head of cattle in the southeast of the state. The site has been inspected and preventively interdicted, the agency added.

Samples were sent to the World Organization for Animal Health lab in Alberta, Canada, to confirm whether it was the classic form of the disease or its “atypical” version.

In 2021, two cases of the disease triggered a suspension in beef exports to China that lasted more than three months.

Argentina corn production down following abnormal temperature swings last week


2022/23 Argentina corn production is down again by 1% to 43.4 [39.6–47.2] million tons, following volatile temperature swings last week across key areas of the eastern Pampas amid continued lack of moisture, as crops go through the critical early stages of grain fill. Our current estimate puts planted area at 7.65 million hectares, slightly above 7.3 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario and 7.1 million hectares by Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires. In February’s WASDE (08 February), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 47 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 52 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 44.5 and 42.5 million tons, respectively.

Widespread cool and dry conditions were in place throughout Argentina’s core during the past 15 days, after weeks of relatively high rainfall over the western half of the Pampas in January. Most production regions received below average precipitation during the time frame, except southern Buenos Aires where a near normal amount was recorded. Temperatures have been abnormally volatile, with deficits up to 7 °C below normal across the key producing areas of the eastern Pampas, most notably Northern Buenos Aires, eastern Córdoba, southern Santa Fe and Entre Ríos. These areas collectively produce nearly 70% of Argentina’s total corn production, and yet have been the driest by far this season as well, dragging down the national-level yield despite offsetting effects from the rest of the Pampas. Looking ahead, warmer weather is in the forecast but dryness is likely to continue, warranting attention.

Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery remain below historical median levels across most major production regions in the Pampas despite recent improvements, reflecting poor crop developments owing to early season delays and a subsequent growth curve shift causing crops to miss their ideal growing windows. Santa Fe and Entre Ríos in particular, are having arguably the toughest growing season in history, supported by their record low vegetations density levels. The odds of a meaningful yield recovery in these two key regions appear to be slim to none.

Egypt to Review Local Wheat Price According to Global Market

Egypt will stick to local wheat purchasing price in 2023 season that has been declared at 1,250 pound per ardab, if the global price declines compared to the local price, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in statement

  • Reviewing the price will be possible once local wheat purchasing starts in April, should the global price increase
  • Government aims to ensure the largest volume of wheat from the local farmers

Egypt’s GASC Wheat Purchases Reach at Least 5.08m Tons

Egypt’s state buyer bought 240,000 tons of wheat in a tender this week, bringing its total purchases of the grain for the 2022-23 season so far to at least 5.08 million tons.

  • It marked the fourth straight tender where Egypt bought exclusively Russian supply
  • NOTE: The USDA forecasts that Egypt will import 11 million tons during the season, and about half is typically booked by the government
  • The General Authority for Supply Commodities this year began booking some wheat in private talks with traders, marking a shift from its historical process of securing supply in tenders






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