TFM Morning Update 02-24-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal up $0.31; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 31 1/2 in SRW, down 43 1/4 in HRW, down 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 16 1/2; Soybeans up 12 1/4; Soymeal up $0.53; Soyoil up 0.95.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 28 1/2 in SRW, down 22 1/2 in HRW, down 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $12.60; Soyoil down 0.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.5% in SRW, down 3.5% in HRW, down 3.4% in HRS; Corn is down 2.4%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal up 3.6%; Soyoil down 2.1%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans down 27 yuan; Soymeal down 2; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 30; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 33 ringgit (-0.78%) at 4202.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 302 Soybeans; 467 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 152 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 23 were: SRW Wheat down 16,100 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,876, Corn down 8,768, Soybeans down 14,490, Soymeal down 7,430, Soyoil down 10,505.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil’s growing regions for the next week outside of Rio Grande do Sul, where showers will be more limited. The rains will continue to cause delays for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting, putting the corn at risk when the dry season begins in two months. Producers are having trouble making up ground, but the pace is still rather rapid given the rainy conditions. Corn already in the ground will benefit from the available moisture.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Dry conditions continue to be a concern for immature corn and soybeans in Argentina moving forward. The country continues to undergo terrible growing conditions. Any showers will be limited for the rest of February and at least the front half of March, keeping stresses high for both crops. Another burst of heat could come next week as well.

Northern Plains Forecast: A major winter storm brought heavy snowfall to South Dakota and is about finished Thursday morning. Blustery winds may still cause blowing snow and potential blizzard conditions. Very cold air is increasing stress and feed requirements for livestock across the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. The cold will moderate over the weekend, but may continue to be below normal through next week as well. More harsh cold is expected the following week.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A long-duration winter storm brought heavy snow from northern Colorado through northern Nebraska and heavier rain in the southeast on Wednesday. The southwest was dry with strong winds, which may increase stress for winter wheat by drawing more moisture out of the soil. A brief shot of very cold air is in place for a couple of days before moderating by the weekend. A storm system Sunday into Monday will move on a more favorable track for widespread precipitation through the region, but amounts are still being determined in the drought areas. Another storm will follow a similar path late next week as well.

Midwest Forecast: A long-duration winter storm continues to bring heavy snow to northern areas of the Midwest on Thursday. Blustery winds can still mean blowing snow and blizzard conditions. A brief shot of colder air will move through, mostly in the northwest. Another strong storm is forecast for Sunday night and Monday with more widespread precipitation, including winter impacts for northern areas. There may be a storm system for late next week to watch as well.

The player sheet for Feb. 23 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, flat soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.


  • CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought about 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina in an international tender for the same volume which closed on Wednesday
  • VEGOILS PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said on Thursday it had bought 79,000 tonnes of vegetable oils in an international tender.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 48,975 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • FAILED CORN TENDER: South Korea’s largest animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in an international tender which closed on Thursday to buy up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, European traders said.


  • CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
  • CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy around 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat with participation restricted to a limited number of trading houses
  • SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 48,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
  • WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 790,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 440,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.


  • Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were flat to lower on Thursday on light demand and weaker freight rates on Midwest rivers, traders said.
    • Light spot demand from exporters amid slow overseas sales anchored nearby CIF basis values. U.S. shipments of corn and soybeans are not competitive with newly harvested Brazilian supplies on the global market, traders said.
    • Spot freight rates on Midwest rivers fell by 10 to 25 points of tariff on Thursday on slow demand for empty barges and improving river shipping conditions, shippers said.
    • CIF February soy barges were bid at about 83 cents over March futures, down 2 cents. March barge bids were steady at 87 cents over futures.
    • FOB offers for February and March soybean shipments were each around 105 cents over March futures, unchanged.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in February were bid about 75 cents over March corn, down a penny. Corn barges loaded in March were bid 1 cent lower at 79 cents over futures.
    • FOB basis offers for February and March corn shipments held at around 85 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn held steady at most elevators, processors and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest on Thursday, grain dealers said.
    • Country movement of both commodities was light.
    • A sharp drop in corn futures dragged prices lower and killed growers’ interest in booking new deals, an Ohio dealer said.
    • Farmers had already booked ample soybean sales earlier this month and could afford to wait to see if prices rally back to those levels or higher before committing to new deals, dealers said.
    • Although the basis for both commodities was mostly unchanged, soybean bids dipped by a penny a bushel at a river terminal in Morris, Illinois, and corn bids fell by 2 cents a bushel at a Council Bluffs, Iowa, grain elevator.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were firm at U.S. Midwest grain elevators early on Thursday.
    • Elevator bids for soybeans were steady to weak, falling by 1 cent a bushel in Cincinnati, Ohio, dealers said.
    • Processor bids for both soybeans and corn held steady around the region.
    • The cash basis for corn also was unchanged at ethanol plants and terminals along the region’s rivers.
    • River bids for soybeans were steady to weak, falling by a penny a bushel in Seneca, Illinois.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were unchanged at rail and truck market terminals across the southern U.S. Plains on Thursday, grain dealers said.
    • The flat basis and declines in the futures market left cash prices at levels too low to spark fresh interest in farmer selling.
    • Protein premiums for hard red winter wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City fell by 5 cents a bushel for all grades of wheat, according to the latest CME Group data.
    • Premiums have fallen sharply throughout February.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal were flat in the rail and truck markets on Thursday, dealers said.
    • Demand was weak.
    • Plants in the northern United States were running as scheduled despite a severe winter storm, a Minnesota dealer said.
    • The storm slowed movement of soymeal by both truck and rail, the dealer added.

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Feb. 16.

  • Corn est. range 600k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,006k
  • Soybean est. range 400k – 950k tons, with avg of 738k

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Feb. 23: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2022-23 corn production cut to 41m tons from 44.5m tons
  • Soybean production cut by 4.5m tons to 33.5m tons
  • The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.0% to 25.588M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 25.399 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.029m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.02m

USDA OUTLOOK: Planting Area Estimates for US 2023 Crops

USDA OUTLOOK: Ending Stocks for US 2023-24 Crops

USDA OUTLOOK: US Soybean Supply and Demand for 2023-24

USDA OUTLOOK: US Corn Supply and Demand for 2023-24

USDA OUTLOOK: US Wheat Supply and Demand for 2023-24

Large Brazil second-corn states to miss ideal sowing window -consultancy

More than half of the second corn crop in Brazil’s Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states will be planted outside the ideal climate window, according to estimates by agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Thursday.

This raises the prospect of the crop being hit by frosts, as the case was in the 2020/2021 cycle, when both states suffered severe losses.

Parana farmers sowed 18.2% of the second corn crop through last week, compared with 22.8% historically and almost 40% at the same time in 2022. Mato Grosso do Sul has planted only 6.1% against 17.3% historically and 33.7% a year ago, AgRural data showed.

“The second and third biggest producing states will plant more than 50% of the [second] corn after the ideal window,” said AgRural’s Fernando Muraro.

He added the ideal planting window in several regions closes at the end of February.

Second corn, which represents about 75% of national output in a given year, is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas. But this year, heavy rains pushed back harvesting of the oilseed in many places.

Corn sowing delays could weigh on Brazil’s exports — expected to be a record 47 million tonnes this year — and impact meat processors’ margins.

Despite the prospect of frosts hitting corn sowed later this year, Muraro said its premature to ascertain that at this time.

AgRural still estimates an increase of almost 2 million tonnes in Parana’s second corn crop from last year, to around 15.4 million tonnes. It expects a drop around 1 million tonnes for Mato Grosso do Sul’s, to 11.2 million tonnes.

Any losses may be partly offset by Mato Grosso, where second corn planting is ahead of last year. That state alone will harvest an estimated 45.4 million tonnes, more than 4 million tonnes above last season’s, Agrural data show.

Malaysia expects palm oil price to average 4,000 ringgit per tonne in 2023

Malaysia expects the price of crude palm oil to average 4,000 ringgit ($902.93) per tonne this year, the government said on Friday.

That is lower than Thursday’s closing price of 4,235 ringgit a tonne.

Palm oil production is expected to be higher than last year due to improved labour supply, the government said in a report released alongside the 2023 budget on Friday. Malaysia is the world’s second-largest producer of palm oil.

APK-Inform sees slightly higher Ukraine 2022/23 grain exports

Ukraine is likely to export 39.2 million tonnes of grain in the 2022/23 year to June, agriculture consultancy APK-Inform said on Thursday, raising its forecast from 39.09 million tonnes a month earlier.

The exports could include 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 23 million tonnes of corn and 2.4 million tonnes of barley, the Ukrainian consultancy said in its monthly report.

A major wheat and corn exporter, Ukraine’s 2022/23 grain exports were down by 28.4% to 30.8 million tonnes as of Feb. 22, due to a smaller harvest and logistical problems, agriculture ministry data showed.

EU Trims 2022 Soft-Wheat and Barley Harvest Estimates

Soft-wheat production in the 2022-23 season is now seen at 126m tons, down from a January estimate of 126.4m tons, the European Commission said in a report on Thursday.

  • Exports now seen at 32m tons
    • NOTE: As of December, the outlook was for 34m tons
  • Barley output trimmed to 51.5m tons, from 51.6m tons
  • That puts total grain production at 265.6m tons, from 266.4m tons

French soft wheat crop rating rises to 95% good/excellent

The condition of soft wheat improved in the week to Feb. 20, with 95% of crops rated to be in good or excellent condition compared with 93% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.

The score was also above the 93% registered a year earlier, it said in a cereal crop report.

Brazil ethanol use forecast to rise by 5.4% in 2023

A bigger Brazilian sugarcane crop is forecast to mean more hydrous ethanol is used to fill cars this year than in 2022, broker and analyst StoneX SNEX.O said on Thursday.

A StoneX report estimated Brazil’s use of the biofuel, which is an alternative to gasoline at the pumps in the South American country, to grow 5.4% from 2022 to 16.4 billion liters.

Most cars in Brazil are adapted to run on either fuel and drivers usually opt for the cheaper one.

Hydrous ethanol differs from anhydrous ethanol, which is widely produced in the United States and blended with gasoline.

“The increase in hydrous ethanol use should happen as the 2023/24 sugarcane crop gets under way, with higher yields and larger offer of the biofuel”, StoneX said.

The broker expects Brazil’s center-south region to produce 588.2 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2023/24, 5.5% more than in the previous season.

Mills, however, are widely expected to prioritize sugar production at the expense of ethanol in the new crop, as they did in the previous season, since the sweetener currently gives then better financial returns.SBc1

StoneX said that if federal taxes are reinstated to fuels in Brazil, which is expected to happen in March, then hydrous ethanol demand could get an extra boost.

Brazil’s government has yet to confirm that tax change.

POULTRY/CEPEA: Valuations of live chicken and price drops for inputs favor poultry farmers

Live chicken prices are on the rise in Brazil this month, while the quotations for the major inputs consumed in poultry farming – corn and soybean meal – are dropping. This scenario is raising the purchase power of poultry farmers against these inputs.

The increase in the demand for chicken meat is raising the prices for live chicken. Between January and February, quotations have increased 4.9% in São Paulo State, so far, averaging BRL 5.20/kg this month (until Feb. 22nd).

On the other hand, in the grains market, the monthly average price for the 60-kilo bag of corn is at BRL 85.63 in Campinas (SP), 0.5% lower than that in January. For soybean meal, the average is at BRL 2,953.12/ton in Campinas, a slight 0.2% down in the monthly comparison.

In the market of soybean meal, although many purchasers are waiting for prices to drop – based on the possible record harvest of soybean in Brazil –, the delay in the harvesting is constraining steeper devaluations of the by-product.

Besides, purchasers’ stocks are fading, and some of these agents have been closing deals in the spot market. Moreover, the international demand for the Brazilian by-products has been high, raising the competition between international and domestic consumers.

As for corn, sellers are prioritizing the deliveries of the batches previously purchased, while purchasers seem to have the product stocked. Many of them avoided buying corn in the last days because of the carnival period in Brazil and the possible delay in deliveries.

Thus, this month, the poultry farmers in SP have been able to purchase 1.74 kg of soybean meal by selling a kg of live chicken, 3.7% more than that in Jan/23. Of corn, farmers have been able to purchase 3.59 kg by selling a kg of chicken, 3.8% more than that in January.

Two top Brazil beefpackers to keep supplying China despite mad cow-related ban

Two top Brazilian meatpackers said on Thursday they will be able to continue supplying China with beef despite the world’s largest beef exporting country’s self-imposed ban due to a confirmed case of mad cow disease.

Minerva SA and Marfrig said in separate statements they would use facilities in Argentina and Uruguay to offset the impact of Brazil’s ban, which was triggered by a bilateral sanitary agreement enforced in 2015.

Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro vowed to treat the case with the utmost transparency, adding he hopes the suspension can be lifted next month. The official declined to make any precise predictions, as he said similar previous bans have lasted between 13 and 120 days.

Favaro met with Chinese Ambassador Zhu Qingqiao to discuss the matter on Thursday, but the suspension remains in place.

“China and Brazil are heavily dependent on each other for beef trade, but China could use mad cow disease to bargain for low prices,” Santander wrote in a note to clients, adding the trade suspension will weigh on meatpackers’ first half results.

On Thursday, Minerva’s shares opened lower but ended up 3.5%, while Marfrig advanced 0.3%, reversing earlier losses of up to 3%. Shares in Brazil’s top meatpacker JBS JBSS3.SA rose 5.5%.

Of the listed meat companies affected by the ban, Minerva should be the most affected, followed by Marfrig and JBS, according to Santander analysts.

Minerva has the highest relative exposure to Brazil, with 36% of its 12-month revenues originated in Brazil compared with 30% for Marfrig in South America and 15% for JBS in Brazil, Santander said.

In its statement, Marfrig said it would use six plants in Argentina and Uruguay to supply the Chinese market. Minerva said it would use four plants in the same two countries while Brazil’s ban remained in force.

JBS, with the most geographic diversification among the three, should be the least impacted, according to analysts.

Brazil’s case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy was discovered in a 9-year-old male animal in the country’s northern Para state.

Tests are pending to determine if this is an atypical case of mad cow or classic case, which could spark wider trade bans.

Brazilian authorities said there was a high probability of this being an “atypical” case.

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 715k tons in the week ending Feb. 18 from 539k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 71% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments up 3% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $14.96 per short ton, a decline of $0.50 from the previous week



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