TFM Morning Update 02-25-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning for the second consecutive day this week after President Trump said that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were going forward this time around with more import taxes to come.
Yesterday, the US inspected 1.134 million tons of corn for export as of February 20. This was within the average trade estimates but was down slightly from the previous week and a year ago at this time.
In Argentina, recent rains following the drought in the country are marking an inflection point for the corn and soy crops. The rain is expected to continue over the next few days and is expected to improve the corn conditions.

Soybeans are trading lower again and are on track for a second consecutively lower close due to pressure from looming tariffs and slowing demand due to Brazil’s large soy harvest. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 859k tons of soybeans inspected for export as of February 20. This was within trade expectations and was higher than last week but lower than a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Japan.
In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 39% complete as of February 20. This compares to 23% completion a week ago and 40% at the same time last year. The soy output is now estimated at 168.2 mmt compared to 171 mmt last month.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning again and have broken their uptrend line now finding support at the 100-day moving average. Cash wheat values in the European Union have fallen which could be adding pressure.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 375.5k tons of wheat inspected as of Feb 20. This was higher than last week’s but lower than a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and Malaysia.
The European winter wheat crops are reportedly mostly in fair to good condition. There have been irreversible losses to yield potentials in some parts of the EU according to MARS due to weather.

Amanda Brill