TFM Morning Update 02-26-2025

CORN

Corn is trading sideways to slightly lower this morning as traders await developments on the proposed tariff deadline with Canada and Mexico.
After a strong finish to 2024 and a solid start to 2025, corn export sales have slowed toward the end of February, with the last daily flash sale reported on February 14. Despite this, U.S. NOLA corn remains priced competitively below both Brazilian and Argentine export offerings.
In Argentina, recent rains following the drought in the country are marking an inflection point for the corn and soy crops. The rain is expected to continue over the next few days and is expected to improve the corn conditions.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after Tuesday’s impressive turnaround price action where May futures managed to close over 11 cents off of their daily low.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum, set to conclude this week, is expected to project 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.
Despite a slight reduction from early-season estimates, all indications point to a record-breaking South American soybean crop. This is likely to keep the global balance sheet heavy and continue to keep a lid on prices.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning again and are on pace for their third consecutive session of lower prices.
SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 42.2 mmt, from 42.8 mmt, reflecting persistently slow shipments and low profitability in export operations. The USDA in their latest WASDE had Russian wheat exports pegged at 45.5 mmt.
Moisture and warmth forecast for much of the U.S. Plains over the next two weeks will provide a better idea of any winterkill damage from recent cold snaps.

Keegan Madigan