TFM Morning Update 02-26-2026

CORN

Corn futures are pushing modestly higher this morning, with May testing resistance near $4.43. May corn is up 3/4 cent at $4.42-3/4, while December futures are 1/4 cent higher at $4.67-1/4.
USDA will release weekly corn export inspections later this morning. Trade expectations for new corn sales range from 900,000 to 1.8 MMT for the week ending February 19. U.S. corn continues to remain competitively priced on the global export market.
An improved weather outlook in Brazil, featuring widespread rainfall coverage, should benefit newly planted second-crop corn as it gets established. Brazil’s safrinha crop is currently projected to total between 135 and 140 MMT by this summer.

Soybean futures are trading mostly higher this morning, with May up 2 cents at $11.67. November futures are down 1/4 cent at $11.27-1/2.
Firm crude oil markets, which have been building in a risk premium amid potential U.S.–Iran tensions, have lent strength to the soybean oil market. That support has carried over into soybeans, helping lift prices to fresh contract highs.
Brazilian soybean exports for February are projected at 10.69 MMT, compared to 11.46 MMT estimated the previous week.

The wheat complex is slightly lower this morning. May Chicago wheat is unchanged at $5.69-3/4, Kansas City May futures are down 3 cents at $5.61-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1 cent lower at $5.96.
The U.S. forecast calls for well-above-normal temperatures across the central and southern Plains over the next 10 days. Warmer conditions could aid winter wheat as it begins to emerge from dormancy, although ongoing dryness continues to pose a risk.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values closed last week at $233 per metric ton FOB, unchanged from the prior week. Strength in the Russian ruble and a slowdown in shipments helped underpin prices. In addition, stormy conditions and ice are reportedly complicating vessel traffic through ports on the Caspian and Baltic Seas, further limiting export flow.

Matthew Lucas