TFM Morning Update 02-27-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s impressive turnaround which saw March futures fall as low as $3.94-1/2 before rallying over 12 cents to end in the green.
Yesterday, export inspections were strong with 48.9 mb inspected which was above the high range of analyst guesses and put total inspections up 36% from the previous year.
With spot corn prices so low, end user margins are widening and those who use corn for feed or to produce ethanol may be increasing their demand. This could eventually be a catalyst for funds to begin unrolling their record short position.

Soybeans are significantly higher this morning and both the corn and soy markets may have put a temporary bottom in yesterday. There is strength in both soybean meal and oil this morning.
First notice day for March grains is this Thursday, so there is an expectation to see spreading out of the March contracts and into the May, but so far that has not been evident. Spreading action may be holding off until tomorrow.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 40% complete which compares with 33% the previous year at this time, and the average guess for production is seen at 147.7 mmt. This remains below the USDA’s last guess of 156 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex this morning and also rebounded significantly from yesterday’s lows. KC wheat is the leader so far this morning.
Support in the wheat complex yesterday was driven by weather forecasts showing a cold front sweeping through the winter wheat areas which poses a freeze concern. The front should be gone next week with warmer weather taking over.
While wheat futures in the US have held up relatively well lately, Russia and Ukraine continue to try to undercut each other with wheat prices which has hurt prices globally.

Amanda Brill