TFM Morning Update 02-28-2025

CORN

Corn is mixed to start the day with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts as trade now expects a large planted acreage number in corn this year. May corn is now 37 cents off last week’s high.
As of last Friday’s CFTC report, funds were long around 355,000 contracts of corn, but over the past 5 days, they are estimated to have sold 50,000 contracts with 24,000 sold just yesterday.
The USDA has estimated that 94 million acres of corn will be planted this year which would compare to 90.6 ma last year. This would increase ending stocks to 1.965 bb compared to 1.540 bb in 24/25.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday the USDA estimated soybean planted acres lower than last year. Weather in South America continues to improve and soybeans continue to be sold more cheaply than US beans.
Yesterday, weekly soybean sales came in at 415k tons compared to 500k tons the previous week. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum projected 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.

Wheat is trading higher to start the day after a sharp sell-off yesterday that saw prices down as much as 19 cents. Pressure came from the USDA’s estimate that 47 million acres of wheat would be planted this year.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales falling to 274k tons as of February 20 which was down from 631k tons the previous week. Top buyers were Taiwan, Mexico, and Japan.
IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports.

Amanda Brill