TFM Morning Update 02-29-2024


  • Corn is trading lower this morning after three consecutively higher closes and the start of first notice day this morning. Funds should be rolled out of the March contract and basis contracts have been rolled to the next month.
  • There have been no deliveries so far on March corn to start first notice day which is friendly and likely the reason why corn is only down a penny while delivered on soybeans are down over 10 cents.
  • The trend this week has been grains opening lower but then steadily rising throughout the day for a higher close. For the week, corn is on track for a gain but on the month, it is on track for a loss of about 30 cents.


  • Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning as the arrival of first notice day brought 702 deliveries on the March soybean contract. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is mixed.
  • The large amount of deliveries have brought front month soybeans down to new contract lows while corn has managed to remain off its lows by 17 cents thanks to better export sales and no deliveries.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report are within a range of 100k and 600k tons for soybeans with an average of 334k tons. These estimates are on the low end as there are fears of more sales cancellations.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with KC wheat posting the largest losses and Chicago trailing behind while Minneapolis wheat trades higher. For the week, wheat is on track to post a slight loss and a loss of around 26 cents on the month.
  • There were a large number of unexpected deliveries in wheat with 591 delivered against Minneapolis, 484 contracts for Chicago, but just 56 for KC wheat. This was relatively heavy and is pressuring wheat.
  • India is reportedly planning to buy as much as 32 mmt of wheat from its own farmers from the 23/24 crop. India is the second largest wheat producer in the world and they are expecting production of 114 mmt.


Amanda Brill

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