TFM Morning Update 03-03-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and continues it’s freefall with the March contract losing 55 cents since the recent high two weeks ago. The USDA’s estimate of more planted corn acres accelerated this sell-off.
Brazil is reportedly considering lowering corn ethanol import taxes in a bid to soothe relations with the US and improve the local popularity of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nothing is set in stone, but the conversations will continue over the coming days.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of February 25 selling 16,079 contracts which left them with a net long position of 337,454 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as prices continue to slide putting the May contract below the 100-day moving average. The anticipation of lower planted acres this year has not been enough to offset poor demand. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
It is being reported that China may hit back at the US with their own set of tariffs after President Trump pledged to double Chinese tariffs to 20%. China’s potential retaliatory tariffs would be on food and agricultural products.
Estimates for today’s January soybean crush is expected at 211.1 million bushels and would be down from 217.7 mb the previous month.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts.

Wheat is trading higher to start the week as it attempts to avoid a sixth consecutively lower close. Wheat is nearing the end of its dormancy state, and this Wednesday’s USDA report will give updates on the wheat conditions.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 6,037 contracts leaving them net short 67,614 contracts. Funds were buyers of KC wheat by 755 contracts leaving them short 21,335 contracts.
IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports.

Amanda Brill