TFM Morning Update 03-03-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning after lower trade yesterday. Higher crude oil prices and delayed shipments of fertilizer through the Straight of Hormuz are supporting grains. May corn is up 5 cents to $4.51 and December is up 3-1/4 cents to $4.73-1/4.
In Brazil, the 25/26 summer corn crop is being estimated at 25.53 million metric tons, which would be up from last year’s production of 24.73 mmt. Total corn production is expected to reach 141.71 mmt compared to the forecast of 142.88 mmt.
Yesterday’s export inspections report was solid for corn with 1,859k tons inspected for export, compared to 2,020k last week and 1,353k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Korean Republic, and Japan.

Soybean futures are sharply higher as the war moves outside markets and grains. Crude oil is up $4.88/barrel to $75.62 and the Dow is down 720 points. Higher crude oil is supportive to bean oil. May soybeans are up 14-1/2 cents to $11.78-1/4 while November is up 9 cents to $11.37-3/4. May soybean meal is up $3.20 to $316.20 and bean oil is up 0.62 cents to 63.39 cents.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is estimated to be 39% complete as of February 26, which compares to 30% done a week ago and 50% complete a year ago. AgRural has lowered it production estimate to 178 mmt from 181 mmt and StoneX has lowered its estimate by 2.1% due to yield losses caused by weather.
Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,138k tons which compared to 682k last week and 702k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to China, Germany, and Mexico.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as concerns over the expanding war and fertilizer supply drive grains up. May Chicago wheat is up 4-1/4 cents to $5.81-1/2, KC is up 6 cents to $5.80-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1-1/4 cents to $6.11-1/4.
The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has suspended its loadings after a major attack by Ukrainian drones on an oil terminal and Russian warships. A state of emergency was called and there are reports of major damage residentially as well. That port exports 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 344k tons, which compared to 563k tons last week and 391k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to the Philippines, Tanzania, and Mexico.

Amanda Brill