TFM Morning Update 03-04-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning and has traded within a narrow range since rebounding from its contract lows last Monday. Early support in corn is coming from higher soybean meal.
South American weather has remained favorable with Argentina’s corn crop getting a steady supply of rain which has increased the crops good to excellent rating to 87%. The Brazilian safrinha corn is being planted in good conditions as well.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of February 27, funds bought back 45,474 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,258 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning as well and are leading the grain complex after last week’s lower trade that saw prices hit a new contract low before rebounding on Friday. Soybean meal is higher and soybean oil is lower this morning.
StoneX has been one the few firms to increase their estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop. They have increased their estimate to 151.6 mmt which is up 0.8% from their estimate last month. This is still lower than the USDA’s last guess of 156 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 23,976 contracts which increased their net short position to 160,0653 contracts. Soybeans were the only grain that funds were sellers of.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago slightly lower and May KC and Minn wheat a bit higher. Wheat has struggled to move higher as global cash prices slip due to cheap Russian and Ukrainian wheat.
In the US, winter wheat conditions are better than last year at this time, but certain parts of the country have dealt with strong winds and wildfires which are causing concerns for soil moisture levels.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 12,198 contracts of wheat which decreased their net short position to 56,326 contracts.

Amanda Brill