TFM Morning Update 03-04-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after President Trump confirmed the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after much speculation. This is particularly bearish for corn as Mexico is the top importer of US corn. May futures are now trading below their 200-day moving average and have lost 70 cents from their recent high.
US corn used for ethanol came in at 457.4 million bushels in January which was below December but up 3.7% from January 2024.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1.351m tons of corn inspected for export which was on the higher range of trade estimates and was above last week’s and last year’s inspections.

Soybeans are trading lower again this morning and are on track for a fifth consecutively lower close after China has said they would continue retaliating to US tariffs. May corn has fallen back below the 10-dollar mark, and both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
After President Trump said that the US would double its tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China said it would halt the import of soybeans from three US entities and lumber from the US. They also placed 15% tariffs on other US agricultural goods.
StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

Wheat is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex in response to the fresh tariffs. The US also exports wheat to Mexico in addition to corn. May corn futures are now just 3 cents off their contract lows.
US winter wheat crop conditions were updated as of March 2, and Kansas and Oklahoma saw good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points and 1 point respectively. Crop conditions fell in Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
The US inspected 389.6k tons of wheat which was on par with last week’s inspections but higher than those of a year ago. Primary buyers were Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Amanda Brill