TFM Morning Update 03-04-2026

CORN

Corn futures are mixed to start the session, with slight losses in nearby contracts and modest gains in new-crop futures. May corn is down 1 cent at $4.45, while December futures are up 1/4 cent at $4.71-1/2.
Crude oil prices eased Tuesday in extended trading after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would provide insurance for tankers operating in the Persian Gulf in an effort to keep maritime traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy markets influence corn demand through ethanol production. Corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol, so movements in crude oil prices often spill over into corn markets. Higher crude oil prices can improve ethanol blending margins and increase demand for corn-based ethanol, while weaker energy markets can have the opposite effect.

Soybean futures are posting modest gains this morning. May futures are up 1 cent at $11.71-1/2, while November futures are 1/4 cent higher at $11.31-3/4.
Markets are watching for any resurgence in Chinese demand after Beijing fulfilled the 12 million metric ton soybean purchase target previously pledged to the White House. However, traders remain cautious given the relatively high price of U.S. supplies.
Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are expected to meet in mid-March, signaling that plans for a summit between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping remain on track despite recent U.S. strikes on Iran.

The wheat complex is lower to start the day. May Chicago wheat is down 4-1/4 cents at $5.69-3/4, Kansas City May futures are 3-1/2 cents lower at $5.74-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is off 1/2 cent at $6.12-3/4.
Argentina is bringing a record 27.7 million-ton harvest to market, while Australia’s production estimate has been revised higher following favorable rains. This surge in global supplies comes as the U.S. Dollar Index has risen, further reducing the competitiveness of U.S. exports on the world market.
Additionally, a favorable early-March weather pattern is expected to bring widespread precipitation across the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt, easing earlier concerns about drought stress.

Matthew Lucas