TFM Morning Update 03-06-2025

CORN

Old crop corn is trading higher again this morning while new crop is slightly lower. May corn has moved back above its 200-day moving average, and the stochastics are now showing a crossover buy signal.
Yesterday, President Trump said that tariffs on automobiles from Mexico and Canada would be postponed another 30 days, which gave trade some hope that a better trade deal could be achieved.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 892k tons. This would be lower than last week’s 923k and last year’s 1,110k tons.

Soybeans are higher again this morning as the market seems to shake off tariff concerns to some degree. May soybeans are still below all moving averages but have also shown a buy signal in their stochastics.
Talk of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans shook the market, but in reality, they are unlikely to have a large effect on old crop sales, and there is optimism that an agreement can be made before new crop sales are impacted.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 550k tons with an average guess of 429k. This would be slightly higher than last week’s 415k but lower than a year ago at 680k tons.

All three wheat classes are trading higher again this morning, with Minneapolis wheat leading the way higher. This would be the second consecutively higher day after 8 straight days of losses. May wheat stochastics show a buy signal as well.
Russian wheat production is reportedly unchanged despite extremely cold temperatures, as they were accompanied by snow coverage. 25/26 Russian wheat production is estimated at 79.6 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 225k and 525k tons with an average guess of 333k. This would compare to 274k a week ago and 335k a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill