TFM Morning Update 03-06-2026

CORN

Corn futures are continuing to move higher this morning, with the market approaching technical resistance near $4.58. That level marks the upper boundary of the trading range that was in place prior to the January WASDE report. May corn is up 3-1/4 cents at $4.56-3/4, while December futures are 2 cents higher at $4.80.
Export Sales data for the week ending February 26 showed 2.02 MMT in old-crop corn sales. That total was nearly triple the previous week and more than double the same week last year. South Korea was the top buyer at 530,300 MT, followed by Colombia at 225,000 MT and Mexico at 224,700 MT. New-crop sales were reported at 154,000 MT, all to Japan.
Crude oil prices have continued to move higher this morning, with nearby futures up roughly 5% as energy markets price in the potential for an extended conflict and disruptions to infrastructure and trade flows.

Soybean futures are continuing to move higher this morning, supported by strength in the energy markets. May soybeans are up 7-3/4 cents at $11.87, while November futures are 7-1/2 cents higher at $11.44.
In its latest weekly report, USDA said soybean export sales for the week ending February 26 totaled 383,500 metric tons. The total landed toward the low end of trade expectations, which ranged from 300,000 to 1 million metric tons.
Soybean oil continues to draw bullish support from the rapid rise in crude oil prices, reflecting its role as a key feedstock in biodiesel production. On a continuous chart, soybean oil has now broken above the August 2023 high, a notable technical level.

The wheat complex is higher across the board this morning, with Chicago wheat leading the advance. May Chicago wheat is up 14 cents at $5.97-3/4, Kansas City May futures are 12-3/4 cents higher at $6.05-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 8 cents at $6.27-1/2.
According to USDA data as of March 3, about 56% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 6% from the previous week and the highest level since November 2024. Over the same period, the share of spring wheat area in drought rose from 16% to 19%.
SovEcon has left its estimate for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop unchanged at 24.6 MMT. This comes despite the cold snap earlier this year, as analysts noted that strong snow cover likely shielded the crop from significant damage.

Matthew Lucas