CORN

• Discussions between the US and Mexico could lead to Mexico excluding corn from its retaliatory tariff list, while the US may offer relief on some agricultural imports.

• South Korea is tendering for corn again, with prices now near $240 per MT, down from $260 per MT. US PNW corn remains the cheapest option for Asian buyers, while US Gulf corn is now the cheapest option for North Africa.

• In addition to tariff concerns, wheat futures have pressured the corn market, with May contracts for all three wheat classes hitting new contract lows this week.

SOYBEANS

• Trade estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169.1 MMT (vs. USDA 169) and Argentina’s at 48.8 MMT (vs. USDA 49).

• US soybean export commitments are up 13% YoY (vs. USDA estimate of 9%). USDA announced 20 MT of soyoil sold to an unknown buyer, but no new soybean sales.

• US soybean board crush margins remain near a 3–4 month low.

WHEAT

• The US Plains and Black Sea region remain dry, while Russia’s export margins are improving. Trade expects the USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia export estimates, though this could be offset by lower imports and stable world ending stocks.

• Argentina and Australia wheat prices are now competitive in North Africa. Matif wheat futures hit a six-month low, pressured by a stronger Euro.

• Trade estimates US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 million bu (vs. USDA 794). The EU wheat crop is rated 74% good/excellent, which is below average but above last year.

Author

Matt Mattke