TFM Morning Update 03-09-2026

CORN

Corn futures have surged higher again this morning, drawing spillover support from strength in the energy markets. May futures traded as high as $4.76 earlier in the session but have since pulled back, currently up 8-3/4 cents at $4.69-1/4. December futures are 8-1/2 cents higher at $4.93.
Oil surged above $100 per barrel after several major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output and concerns intensified over prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The rally in energy markets has pushed up production, freight, and fertilizer costs, offering support to grain prices. At the same time, stronger crude oil prices have improved demand prospects for biofuels.
Gains were further amplified by short covering as traders exited bearish positions amid rising geopolitical risks. Despite the rally, abundant global grain supplies continue to cap the potential for a sustained move higher.

Soybean futures have surged higher again this morning, leaving a nearly 10-cent technical gap on the May contract. May soybeans are up 17-3/4 cents at $12.18-1/4, while November futures are 16-1/2 cents higher at $11.63-1/4.
Oil prices jumped more than 4% as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted fuel supplies. The rally boosted demand for biodiesel feedstocks and raised concerns about tightening availability of agricultural oils. Rising energy prices often ripple through agricultural markets, as crops like soybeans and corn are key inputs in biofuel production and tend to attract increased participation from commodity funds.
Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are harvesting a record soybean crop, a development that could temper China’s demand for U.S. supplies even as heightened global tensions keep markets on edge.

The wheat complex is higher across the board this morning, with spring wheat futures leading the advance. May Chicago wheat is up 8 cents at $6.24-3/4, Kansas City May futures are 10-1/4 cents higher at $6.45-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 12-1/2 cents at $6.68-1/2.
USDA reported winter wheat ratings fell 22% month over month amid limited snow cover and expanding drought across the Southern Plains, raising concerns about potential yield losses. Additional support came from expectations that Russia’s wheat exports in 2025/26 could decline due to adverse weather and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region.
Still, gains may be limited by a firm U.S. dollar and ample global supplies following strong South American harvests. Traders are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s March WASDE report for updated projections on global supply and ending stocks.

Matthew Lucas