TFM Morning Update 03-10-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day and are likely being supported by a jump in wheat prices. So far, May futures appear to be posting a V-bottom and have rallied 30 cents off the recent low.
The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow, and while major changes are not expected, trade will look to see if strong domestic and export demand recently will be acknowledged and lower the carryout.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of a whopping 117,702 contracts of corn as of March 4, leaving them with a net long position of 219,752 contracts. Over the past two trading days, funds have bought back an estimated 34,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the week and have found resistance at the 100-day moving average in the May contract, hovering around $10.28. Soybean meal is higher today, while soybean oil is lower.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report, trade will also look for changes in demand to impact the ending stocks, but it is possible that the strong domestic crush demand could be offset by poor export demand, leaving things unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 43,696 contracts, leaving them with a new net short position of 35,487 contracts. They sold 33,383 contracts of bean oil and 22,151 contracts of bean meal.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as the winter wheat crop begins to exit dormancy in dry conditions. In the Northern Plains, the crop is regarded as relatively poor, while the Southern Plains will be in need of moisture as they exit dormancy.
The US Plains and Black Sea region remain dry, while Russia’s export margins are improving. Trade expects the USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia export estimates, though this could be offset by lower imports and stable world ending stocks.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 14,785 contracts of Chicago wheat, leaving them with a net short position of 82,399 contracts. They sold 17,947 contracts of KC wheat, leaving them short 39,282 contracts.

Amanda Brill