TFM Morning Update 03-11-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning and continue to make a V-shaped recovery from last week’s lows. May futures are on track for a fifth consecutively higher close as tariffs have been pushed back 30 days. So far, there have been 605 deliveries against the March contract.
In South America, the northern regions of Argentina have received too much rain that is making the corn harvest unfavorable, while central and southern Brazil remain dry. Temperatures are expected to be warm there over the next 6-10 days.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see US corn ending stocks being reduced slightly from 1.540 bb to 1.518 bb as a result of expected higher exports. World ending stocks are expected to be unchanged to slightly lower, and Argentinian corn production is forecast to be lowered slightly.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning taking back some of yesterday’s losses, but are still trading below all major moving averages with the 100-day as tough resistance. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher after meal sold off yesterday. There have been 841 deliveries against March soybeans.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report expect few changes for soybeans with US ending stocks likely unchanged at 380 mb, world ending stocks potentially a bit higher, but expectations for a decline in Argentinian production but higher Brazilian production.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly 61% complete as of last Thursday which compares to 55% at this time last year, impressive after the country’s late start to planting.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after posting double digit gains in yesterday’s trade. Yesterday’s higher price action may have been in anticipation of news of a smaller Russian crop. This could be confirmed in today’s WASDE report.
Winter wheat ratings fell in Kansas by 2 points to 52% good to excellent, but in Texas ratings fell more sharply by 6 points to just 28% good to excellent. In Oklahoma, ratings improved by 11 points following much needed rain to 46% good to excellent.
Today’s WASDE report is expected to see US wheat ending stocks slightly higher as a result of lower exports, and world ending stocks virtually unchanged. There is a possibility of a decline in Russian production which would be friendly.

Amanda Brill