TFM Morning Update 03-12-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading significantly lower to start the day after the USDA did not increase export demand in yesterday’s WASDE report causing prices to give up previous gains for a lower close which may be bleeding into today.
Yesterday’s WASDE report saw no changes made to US ending stocks in corn, but world ending stocks were lowered slightly. Argentinian and Brazilian corn production estimates were left unchanged.
In South America, the northern regions of Argentina have received too much rain that is making the corn harvest unfavorable, while central and southern Brazil remain dry. Temperatures are expected to be warm there over the next 6-10 days.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning following losses in both corn and wheat.. May soybeans have been unable to significantly break above the 10-day moving average over the past month as the US struggles with poor export demand.
A Bloomberg survey is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 168.7 mmt for 24/25 which is just a hair below the USDA’s estimate. This would be 2.7 mmt higher than the agency’s last estimate in February.
Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks untouched at 380 mb, a slight decline in world ending stocks, and no changes to Brazilian or Argentinian soybean production which are at 169 mmt and 49.0 mmt, respectively.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day with pressure potentially from a move higher in the US dollar. While yesterday’s report was relatively neutral for corn and soybeans, it was bearish for wheat.
Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending wheat stocks increasing t0 819 mb from 794 mb last month, and world ending stocks were increased as well. Trade had previously thought that Russian production would be lowered which would lower world stocks.
Winter wheat ratings fell in Kansas by 2 points to 52% good to excellent, but in Texas ratings fell more sharply by 6 points to just 28% good to excellent. In Oklahoma, ratings improved by 11 points following much needed rain to 46% good to excellent.

Amanda Brill