TFM Morning Update 03-14-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.26; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $0.92; Soyoil down 0.63.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 24 3/4 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 35 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $9.60; Soyoil down 4.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.1% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 11.8% in HRS; Corn is down 8.0%; Soybeans down 1.3%; Soymeal up 2.9%; Soyoil down 13.3%.


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Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans down 29 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil down 140; Palm oil down 136; Corn down 7 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 58 ringgit (-1.43%) at 3985.

There were changes in registrations (-33 Corn, -47 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 43 Oats; 62 Corn; 256 Soybeans; 652 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 88 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 13 were: SRW Wheat down 386 contracts, HRW Wheat up 99, Corn down 1,546, Soybeans down 3,185, Soymeal down 3,222, Soyoil down 1,378.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil’s growing regions this week outside of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where showers will be more limited. Despite recent rains, many areas have made significant progress with regard to soybean harvest and corn planting. However, some areas are behind, somewhat significantly, and will expose more of the corn crop to the dry season, which is forecast start up in April, and frosts that may occur in June. Corn already in the ground will benefit from good soil moisture.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers are possible across the northern half of Argentina through the middle of the week with drier conditions returning by the end of the week. However, for most areas, the rain is too late to have much of an impact. Additionally, above average temperatures are expected to continue this week, with daytime highs near 100 degrees Fahrenheit when the rains do not occur. The heat will keep stress high for both crops in various stages of growth, but isolated rain showers may provide a little relief to dry conditions.

Northern Plains Forecast: A few systems will move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies this week, providing more snowfall. Below- to well-below normal temperatures will remain across these areas into the end of the week, requiring more input for livestock operations.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A few isolated showers are possible early this week, but the main system will move in Thursday and Friday, providing scattered rain and thunderstorms to the area. However, portions of the Central Plains could miss out on the heavier rainfall again as drought conditions persist.

Midwest Forecast: After the snowfall this weekend, the weather will settle down for the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the area. Later this week, another low-pressure system from the West will provide more rain and snow showers to the area. In the wake of this system, below- to well-below average temperatures will follow into early next week.

 The player sheet for 3/13 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.


  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 1.043 mln tonnes of wheat for July-August arrival, in its first tender in 2023, the Saudi state purchasing agency General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Monday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Monday
  • WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 234,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat.
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 121,800 tonnes of rice.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil.
  • CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins


  • Basis values for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady to firm on Monday on rising freight rates and moderate demand, while CIF corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak, traders said.
    • Spot barge freight rates on Midwest rivers were up 10 to 25 points of tariff on good demand for empty vessels from shippers on the Illinois River and on the Mississippi River at St. Louis and north. Northern sections of the river system are reopening for the season following winter closures.
    • CIF soybean barges loaded in March were bid at 92 cents a bushel over March futures, up about 3 cents. April barges were bid up 2 cents at 89 cents over futures.
    • FOB offers for March soybean shipments held steady at around 108 cents over May. April offers were steady at 105 cents over futures.
    • For corn, CIF barges loaded in March were bid at 81 cents over May, down 5 cents from late Friday. April barges were flat at 85 cents over futures.
    • FOB basis offers for March corn shipments were around 92 cents over May futures, unchanged from Friday, and April offers were steady at around 93 cents over May futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to firm at processors and river terminals in Illinois on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Corn bids also were unchanged at processors and river terminals in the western half of the U.S. Midwest.
    • The corn basis was flat at elevators around the interior of the region.
    • Soybean bids held steady at most Midwest processors, elevators and river terminals.
    • Country movement of soybeans and corn was slow on Monday.
    • Cash prices have fallen below growers’ targets, dealers said.
    • Most growers were focused on preparing equipment and fields for planting and were not marketing grain.
    • Although the soy basis was mostly steady, bids fell by 5 cents a bushel at a processor in Des Moines, Iowa.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to firm at ethanol plants and river terminals in the eastern U.S. Midwest on Monday morning, grain dealers said.
    • The corn basis was flat at processors and grain elevators.
    • Cash bids for soybeans were steady to weak at elevators, and unchanged at processors and river terminals.
    • Farmers were showing little interest in booking deals for either commodity, a dealer in Iowa said.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were flat at rail and truck market terminals across the southern U.S. Plains on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Farmer sales were slow.
    • Most growers had already made deals for all of their wheat they harvested in 2022, an Oklahoma dealer said.
    • Concerns about dry soils limiting the size of their 2023 harvest were preventing growers from booking deals for the wheat currently being grown in their fields, the dealer added.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal fell at truck market processors in the eastern half of the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday, dealers said.
    • The basis was steady to firm at truck processors in the western half of the region.
    • Offers were also unchanged in the rail market.
    • Demand was light on Monday, an Indiana dealer said.
    • High cash prices for soymeal were keeping most end users from booking surplus orders, dealers said.

Oklahoma, Texas Winter Wheat Conditions Fall, Kansas Holds: USDA

The following table shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of March 12, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

  • Kansas good/excellent rating remained at 17% in the week ending March 12
  • Oklahoma conditions lowered to 30% good/excellent vs 39% in the previous week
  • Texas conditions fell to 17% good/excellent vs 19%

US Inspected 0.999m Tons of Corn for Export, 619k of Soybean

In week ending March 9, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Wheat: 249k tons vs 341k the previous wk, 308k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 619k tons vs 552k the previous wk, 799k a yr ago
  • Corn: 999k tons vs 933k the previous wk, 1,147k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 9

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 9 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 153k tons of the 619k total inspected
  • Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

Russian official: Black Sea grain deal extended on previous conditions – TASS

The Black Sea grain deal that facilitates Ukrainian agricultural exports has been extended on the previous conditions, the TASS news agency cited Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying on Tuesday

Brazil 2022/23 Soy Harvest 53% Done as of March 9: AgRural

Soy harvest was 43% done in the previous week, and 64% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

  • Less frequent rains and higher temperatures increased the pace on harvest
  • In Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state the first harvested areas confirm the crop failure
  • Center-South’s winter corn planting was 81% done, compared to 70% in the previous week and 94% a year ago
  • Summer corn harvest reached was 45% done in the Center-South, compared to 36% in the previous week and 52% a year ago

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 24% Y/y Through March 13

Ukraine’s grain exports during the season that began July 1 totaled 34.2m tons as of Monday, down 24% from a year earlier, the country’s agriculture ministry says on its website

Total includes:

  • 19.9m tons of corn, down 2.1% y/y
  • 11.8m tons of wheat, down 35% y/y
  • More than 2m tons of barley, down 62% y/y
  • NOTE: The deal that allows Ukraine to export its crops through the Black Sea during the war against Russia expires on March 18. A Russian delegation is in Geneva on Monday for talks with the UN

Brazil corn crop expected to surpass 126 mln T on larger area, yields

Brazilian farmers are expected to produce the highest volume of corn in history in spite of risks associated with planting delays in some areas, according to a Reuters poll on Monday.

Brazil’s total corn production will reach 126.63 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 cycle, up 11.93% from the previous year, a poll including 12 analysts showed.

The potential rise in Brazil’s total corn output will be driven by a 4.4% increase in planted area and the expectation of higher yields in the season, poll data showed.

Forecasters said the outlook remains positive in spite of ongoing delays to plant the country’s second corn, which is sowed after soybeans are harvested in the same areas. Sowing second corn later means a higher risk of adverse weather events before the harvest.

Brazil’s second corn represents 70%-75% of national output in a given year.

“The grower is encouraged to plant [second corn] as prices are high,” said Flavio de França Júnior, an analyst with Datagro. The general optimism stems from the good prospects for second corn in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest farm state.

“Progress in Mato Grosso, the main producer of the second crop, has been at a good pace, so the outlook is for a good crop”, said Joao Lopes, market intelligence analyst at StoneX.

NOPA February U.S. soy crush seen at 166.060 million bushels

The daily U.S. soybean processing pace likely rose for a second straight month in February after bad weather and shipping snarls restricted crushing earlier this winter, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 166.060 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts. That compares with 179.007 million bushels processed by NOPA members in January and 165.057 million bushels in February 2022.

The estimate implies an average daily crush rate of 5.931 million bushels, which would be up from 5.774 million bushels a day in January and 5.726 million bushels a day in December, normally among the busiest months for processors. It would also be the highest daily crush rate for any February on record.

Estimates for the February 2023 crush ranged from 162.000 million to 173.015 million bushels, with a median of 165.140 million bushels.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday. NOPA releases crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of Feb. 28 were projected at 1.886 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts.

If realized, the soyoil stocks would be up 3.1% from the 1.829 billion pounds at the end of January, but down 8.4% from the 2.059 billion pounds at the end of February 2022.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.775 billion to 2.025 billion pounds, with a median of 1.875 billion pounds.

WHEAT/CEPEA: With record output, Brazil may become the 10th biggest exporter in the world

Official estimates indicating the Brazilian wheat output may set a record have been offsetting lower supply in Argentina, which is the number one supplier to Brazil. Also, the higher harvest is favoring wheat exports, which are expected to increase compared to that in the previous season and make Brazil the 10th biggest wheat exporter in the world.

These are the USDA’s estimates released last week. The USDA forecasts the world output of wheat at 788.9 million tons, 0.7% higher than that estimated in Feb/23 and 1.2% above that in the 2021/22 season. World consumption estimates were revised up in the monthly comparison, to 793.2 million tons, a slight 0.1% up from that in 2021/22 and above the world production. Exports are estimated to total 212.3 million tons in 2022/23, 0.4% higher than that forecast in February and 3.4% above that last season. With consumption higher than production, ending stocks are estimated at 267.2 million tons, 0.8% down from that estimated in February and the lowest in six years.

In Brazil, the season ended in 2022, and Conab estimated the output at 10.55 million tons, a record, with productivity forecast at 3.4 tons/hectare and the area with wheat crops, at 3.08 million hectares. This productivity is the highest ever registered in Brazil. Conab estimates that, between Aug/22 and Jul/23, Brazil will import 5.8 million tons and export 3.1 million tons – if confirmed, the volume exported ill be 1.8% higher than that last season.

In February, Brazil imported 291.6 thousand tons of wheat, 33.7% less than that imported in January/23 and a steep 41.5% down from that in Feb/22. In the last 12 months, wheat imports totaled 5.4 million tons. Argentina is still the top wheat supplier to Brazil, having sent 84.3% of the total volume imported, followed by Russia and Paraguay.

As for exports, Brazil exported 536.9 thousand tons of wheat in February, 4.4% less than that shipped in January and 35.8% below that from Feb/22. In 12 months (Mar/22-Feb/23), exports totaled 2.8 million tons.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Wheat prices are still fading in the national over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). Cepea surveys show that, between March 3 and 10, the prices paid to wheat farmers dropped 0.22% in Santa Catarina and 0.09% in Paraná but remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 0.29% in RS and 0.16% in PR but rose 0.56% in SC and 0.32% in São Paulo. In the same period, the US dollar increased 0.3%, to BRL 5.215 on March 10th.

Japan to Cap Imported Wheat Price Gains at 5.8% From April

Japan’s agriculture ministry says it would cap increases in imported wheat prices at 5.8% y/y from April.

  • Move comes after the ministry implemented emergency measures to maintain the prices in Oct. on the back of surging costs
  • Without measure announced Tuesday, prices would be up ~13%

El Nino Watch Issued; La Nina Has Ended, Australia’s BOM Says

While the Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO-neutral, the criteria for El Nino Watch have now been met, indicating around a 50% chance that an El Nino may develop later in 2023, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says in a statement.

  • A significant amount of warmer-than-average water exists in the western and central tropical Pacific sub-surface, and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures have emerged in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific in recent weeks.
  • NOTE: El Nino Watch means that there is around a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will develop. This is about twice the normal likelihood. El Nino Watch is not a guarantee that El Nino will occur, but it is an indication that some of the typical precursors are currently observed
  • The 2022–2023 La Nina has ended, following its declaration in September, the bureau says

Chile confirms first bird flu outbreak in poultry, halts chicken exports

Chilean authorities on Monday confirmed the South American country’s first outbreak of avian flu in poultry, prompting it to suspend chicken exports from the country.

Agriculture Minister Esteban Valenzuela told a news conference a case had been confirmed in a campus belonging to meat producer Agrosuper, in a western part of central Chile’s Rancagua commune.

“The laboratory reported positive results and proceeded to control the area,” he said.

Valenzuela said he hopes exports can resume by the end of the 28-day period ban established by international protocols.

Chile had up till then only detected the disease in wild animals. In February , health authorities detected the first case in a marine mammal, in a sea lion in northern Chile.

Subsidies Feed Green Shoots of Expanding Ammonia Opportunity

Major nitrogen producers hold a hidden gem as green goals inflate the hydrogen economy: ammonia. Long used to coax bigger crops from the ground, it’s also the most efficient way to transport hydrogen. Though growth forecasts seem fanciful against today’s tiny green-hydrogen use, subsidies are beginning to spur spending by fertilizer makers.





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