TFM Morning Update 03-14-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower to start the day as March futures prepare to go off the board around $4.43. May corn is currently on track for a nearly 10 cent loss on the week as trade has been concerned over tariffs and the possibilities of a trade war.
Yesterday’s export sales report was decent for corn saw sales at 981k tons which was on the higher side of trade expectations and compared to 961k tons last week. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Spain.
A recent shift to warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks across much of Brazil’s second-crop corn regions is likely adding some weather premium back into the market. With Brazil’s ending stocks projected to be the lowest since 2002, there is little room for a production issue, keeping traders focused on weather developments.

Soybeans are mixed to start the day with the two front months trading lower while the deferred are slightly higher. March soybeans are set to go off the board around $9.97 at this point.
Yesterday’s export sales report was good for soybeans with 795k tons sold which compared to 408k tons last week. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands.
Soybeans remain under pressure as the rapidly advancing Brazilian harvest continues to add supply to the global market. As of early this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest was 61% complete, with the top-producing state of Mato Grosso nearing 92% completion.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Wheat showed strength yesterday after Paris milling wheat gapped higher making US wheat more competitive on the global market.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw better than expected wheat sales at 866k tons which compared to 416k tons the previous week. Primary destinations were to Panama, South Korea, and the Philippines.
A warm and dry outlook for the U.S. Plains and much of the Black Sea region over the next two weeks is injecting some weather premium back into wheat futures. With winter wheat emerging from dormancy, concerns over soil moisture deficits and potential stress on the crop are supporting prices.

Amanda Brill