TFM Morning Update 03-15-2023

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are up 7 3/4 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.32; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 25 1/4 in SRW, up 21 1/4 in HRW, up 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $0.08; Soyoil down 0.38.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, down 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal up $17.30; Soyoil down 4.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.1% in SRW, down 7.7% in HRW, down 9.3% in HRS; Corn is down 7.6%; Soybeans down 1.3%; Soymeal up 1.4%; Soyoil down 11.9%.


Like what you’re reading?

Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!


Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans down 33 yuan; Soymeal down 15; Soyoil down 10; Palm oil up 58; Corn up 6 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 33 ringgit (+0.83%) at 4015.

There were changes in registrations (55 Corn, 1 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 43 Oats; 117 Corn; 256 Soybeans; 652 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 88 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 14 were: SRW Wheat down 3,249 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,696, Corn up 9,544, Soybeans down 1,538, Soymeal down 4,470, Soyoil up 5,933.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil’s growing regions this week. Despite recent rains, many areas continue to make progress with regard to soybean harvest and corn planting. However, some areas are behind, somewhat significantly, and will expose more of the corn crop to the dry season which is forecast start up in April and frosts that may occur in June. Corn already in the ground will benefit from good soil moisture.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers are possible across the northern half of Argentina through Thursday, with drier conditions returning thereafter. However, for most areas, the rain is too late to have much of an impact. Additionally, above-average temperatures are expected to continue this week, with daytime highs near 100 degrees Fahrenheit when the rains do not occur. The heat will keep stress high for both crops in various stages of growth, but isolated rain showers may provide some relief for dry conditions.

Northern Plains Forecast: A few systems will move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies this week, providing more snowfall. Below to well-below normal temperatures will remain across these areas through early next week, requiring more input for livestock operations.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A few isolated showers are possible across west Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday. A stronger system will move in Thursday and Friday, providing scattered rain and thunderstorms to the area. Even a few snow showers cannot be ruled out behind the system’s cold front. However, areas such as western Kansas could miss out on the heavier rainfall again as drought conditions persist.

Midwest Forecast: A calmer pattern settles across the region through the middle of the week with a ridge developing over the region. By Thursday into Friday, another low pressure system from the West will provide more rain and snow showers to the area. In the wake of this system, below to well-below average temperatures will follow into early next week.

The player sheet for 3/14 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 0 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.


  • CORN PURCHASE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 612,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to China for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased an estimated 135,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in two consignments in an international tender on Tuesday
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased an estimated 234,000 tonnes of soft wheat in an international tender for the same volume on Tuesday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought around 540,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender on Monday.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 73,518 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on March 16.
  • CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 35,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina.


  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil.
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 121,800 tonnes of rice.


  • Basis values for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady to higher on Tuesday on good export demand and concerns about slower river navigation amid rising water levels, traders said.
    • FOB Gulf corn export premiums firmed on signs of improving demand from China for U.S. shipments and as premiums at Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports have risen over the past two weeks.
    • PNW corn prices have spiked by about 20 cents a bushel amid the Chinese buying, making Gulf shipments more attractive to buyers in Asia, a trader said.
    • CIF soybean basis bids were mixed on Tuesday as good demand for immediate barge shipments underpinned spot values. Seasonally slowing demand weighed down deferred bids.
    • FOB Gulf soybean export premiums were flat on slow export demand as cheaper Brazilian soy flooded the market.
    • Spot barge freight rates on Midwest rivers held steady on Tuesday after rising a day earlier. Recent rains and snowmelt are raising river levels, causing high currents that prompted shippers to limit loads or slow movement.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in March were bid 7 cents higher at 88 cents over May futures.
    • FOB basis offers for March corn shipments were 95 cents over futures, up 3 cents.
    • Soybean barges loaded in the first half of March traded at 97 cents over May futures, up 5 cents. But bids for full-March barges fell 2 cents to 90 cents over futures.
    • FOB offers for March soybean shipments held steady at 108 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn edged higher at some river terminals and processors around the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday, grain dealers said.
    • The corn basis was flat at interior grain elevators.
    • Soybean bids held steady at processors, elevators and river terminals around the region.
    • Farmer sales were slow.
    • Growers were focused on their preparations for planting, dealers said.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were unchanged at grain elevators across the southern U.S. Plains on Tuesday, grain dealers said.
    • Country movement was slow despite a rebound in the futures market that pulled cash prices higher.
    • But prices remained well below levels hit earlier this year.
    • Farmers also were waiting to see if field conditions improve before committing to new deals, dealers said.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to slightly higher at grain elevators, processors and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest early on Tuesday, dealers said.
    • The corn basis was flat at the region’s ethanol plants.
    • Cash bids for soybeans were unchanged at processors, elevators and river terminals.
    • Farmer sales of both commodities were slow as prices have fallen well below targets that growers set, dealers said.
    • Most farmers have not yet readjusted their price targets to reflect the recent market weakness.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal held steady at both rail and truck market processors on Tuesday, dealers said.
    • Activity was quiet on the cash market, a rail dealer said.
    • Most end users had booked enough orders to meet their immediate feeding needs.
    • The rail dealer added that there were no logistical issues that would slow deliveries by train.

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 10 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen higher than last week at 1.02m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 25.378m bbl vs 25.32m a week ago

CROP SURVEY: US February Soybean Crush Seen at 166.3M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on March 13-14.

  • Soybean crush seen 0.7% higher vs February of last year, and a decline of 7.1% vs a month ago
  • Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.891b lbs vs 2.059b a year earlier

Brazil Soymeal Exports Seen Reaching 2.091 Million Tns In March Versus 1.905 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec


Brazil 2022/23 Soybean Crop Seen At 149 Million Tns – Patria Agronegocios


Black Sea Crop Deal Aims for 120-Day Renewals as Talks Go On: UN

“Within the context of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agreement foresees a renewal of 120 days but, in the present circumstances, the Secretary-General and his team are focused, in close contact with all the parties, on doing everything possible to ensure continuity of the Initiative,” Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, says in a statement.

  • Regarding the parallel agreement aimed at facilitating Russian food and fertilizer trade:
  • “Meaningful progress has been made, but it is true that some obstacles remain, notably with regard to payment systems. Our efforts to overcome those obstacles will continue unabated”

Egypt Says Vegetable Oil Stockpiles Sufficient for 5 Months

Egypt has vegetable oil stockpiles sufficient for 5 months, supply minister Ali El-Mosilhy says to reporters in Cairo.

  • Wheat sufficient for 3.3 months, sugar for 3 months and rice for 3.3 months
  • Egypt to start purchasing wheat from local farmers by mid-April

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 8.6% Y/y; Corn Imports Increase 60%

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports for the season that began July 1 reached 21.5m tons by March 12, compared with 19.8m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

  • Leading destinations include Morocco (3.27m tons), Algeria (2.94m tons) and Nigeria (1.87m tons)
  • EU barley exports were 4.28m tons, versus 6.03m tons
  • Corn imports were 19m tons, versus 11.8m tons
  • NOTE: Commission says some export figures for Germany may be inaccurate due to its recent shift to a new declaration system and Italy import data is only available through December

Russian Wheat Exports Expected to Grow

Russia is projected to export roughly 4.2 million metric tons of wheat in March, research firm SovEcon says. That’s expected to be double the exports by Russia at this time last year. Russian exporters are expected to play catch-up in March, after the previous month was bogged down from increased winter storms. As a result, heavy Russian competition is expected to keep constraint on US prices. “Active wheat exports from Russia will continue to put pressure on global market prices,” says SovEcon in a note. However, that pressure is nowhere to be found in trading today — with the most-active contract up 1.9%.

UkrAgroConsult Sees Bigger Winter Wheat Planted Area in Ukraine

UkrAgroConsult increased its estimate of Ukraine’s winter wheat planted area but revised down its projection for winter barley, it said in a report.

  • Winter wheat crop planted area in late February seen at 4.1m hectares; higher than Ukraine agriculture ministry estimate of 4m hectares
  • Winter barley crop planted in late February seen at 0.54m hectares, lower than ministry estimate of 0.68m hectares
  • Spring wheat areas in 2023 likely to be 150k-200k hectares, according to report
  • On grain production, Ukragroconsult sees 16.1m tons of wheat, up 0.3m tons from February estimate; 4.07m tons of barley, down by 0.13m tons; keeps corn estimate steady at 21.4m tons

Conflict in Ukraine Halves Europe’s Fertilizer Production: BNEF

  • EU’s nitrogen fertilizer production down 46%
  • Average price of fertilizer increased by 71%

The energy crisis has sharply increased cost of fertilizer production and restricted global supply. Cuts to gas supply from Russia, and the resulting energy crisis, hit Europe’s fertilizer production particularly hard.

Natural gas represents 90% of the variable costs of nitrogen fertilizer production. BNEF estimates that fertilizer manufacturing in the EU dropped by 46% on average between March – December 2022. In October 2022, as much as 70% of European fertilizer production was either closed or curtailed.

Russia produces 45% of Europe’s fertilizer, which became inaccessible once the conflict started in February 2022. Lack of Russian supply and decline in fertilizer production in Europe resulted in a 71% increase in fertilizer prices in the first quarter of 2022.

Fertilizer production has partially recovered but will remain volatile as long as the natural gas crisis in Europe persists. The review of Black Sea deal, which enables export of Ukrainian grain, is currently taking place and will likely influence European production.

More Dryness, Heat Wave Seen for Argentina Soy Belt: Govt Maps

The heart of Argentina’s crop region comprising segments of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Cordoba and La Pampa provinces is set for another week of dryness and extreme heat, according to Agriculture Secretariat weather maps published in a report.

  • Precipitation won’t surpass 20mm (0.8 inch), with temperatures clocking more than 40 degrees C (104 F)
  • NOTE: The region needs cooler, wetter weather to put a halt to deterioration of soy and corn plants
  • Argentina’s Rosario Bourse Readies More Cuts to Soy Forecast
  • Swaths of Argentina are enduring the ninth heat wave of the growing season, when normally there are only two or three, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its report

India Feb. Vegetable Oil Imports Fall to 1.11m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports fell to 1.11m tons in February from 1.66m tons in January, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

  • Palm oil imports fell to 586,007 tons from 833,667 tons in January
  • Soybean oil imports fell to 355,840 tons from 366,625 tons in January
  • Sunflower oil imports fell to 156,628 tons from 461,458 tons in January

Malaysia’s March 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 750,530 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments jump 71.6% m/m from 437,327 tons exported during Feb. 1-15, AmSpec Agri said Wednesday.

Malaysia March 1-15 Palm Oil Exports +55.03% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 55.03% m/m during March 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

  • Total exports for March 1-15: 751,814 tons
  • Crude palm oil exports: 141,560 tons, 18.8% of total
  • EU led all destinations for total exports: 187,800 tons

US senators seek to expand sales of ethanol-gas blend with support from Big Oil

U.S. senators reintroduced a bipartisan bill on Tuesday that would allow nationwide sales of gasoline with a higher blend of ethanol year-round, as a second heavy-weight oil trade group appeared ready to back the idea.

Republican Senator Deb Fischer from Nebraska and Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota – both major corn-producing states – argue that the expanded sales of E15, or fuel containing 15% ethanol, would decrease gasoline prices and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Year-round sales of E15 have been long sought by the biofuel industry and corn farmers, who would benefit from the increased market.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), one of the largest U.S. oil trade groups, has supported the bill since it was introduced last autumn. It began cooperating with the Renewable Fuels Association, a biofuels trade group, on expanded nationwide E15 sales after governors from major corn-producing Midwestern states requested the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lift restrictions on E15 in their states, Reuters previously reported. The governors’ effort raised oil industry concerns that the proposal would create a patchwork of different fuel regulations and logistical challenges around distribution.

On Tuesday, another top U.S. oil group, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), signaled it could support a national standard.

AFPM said that while the bill needed work, a legislative approach was less disruptive than creating patchwork requirements for new fuel blends.

AFPM did not take a position on the bill last autumn.

The governors’ proposal is gaining headway. In response to their request, the EPA in early March proposed to allow year-round E15 sales in those states. That rulemaking would take effect in the summer of 2024 and still needs public comment.

The EPA restricts summertime sales of E15 over concerns that it contributes to smog in hot weather, though research shows the higher percentage blend may not increase smog relative to the 10% blend called E10 that is sold year-round.

Corn consumption for ethanol increasing amid favorable margins – Refinitiv Commodities Research


U.S. ethanol high margins continue lifting the biofuel production in 2023. As of March 14, the average ethanol margins in the corn belt are at $0.54/gal, a 9-year high. With a lower U.S. domestic demand and an expected increase in the 2023/24 U.S. corn supply, the corn prices have lost pressure, likely resulting in good margins for the ethanol industry.

In February, corn for ethanol use totaled 410.9 thousand bushels, a 1.4% increase from January and only 2% above the February 5-year average. As of March 8, the accumulated corn consumption for ethanol for the 2022/23 season is at 2,717.8 million bushels, aligned with the long term average and 3.6% below the prior season. Corn consumption for ethanol production is increasing week over week in response to favorable industry margins. Based on the market indicators, Refinitiv’s Agriculture Research increased the 2022/23 U.S. corn consumption for ethanol use to 5,279.5 million bushels, 22.1 million bushels from the last update and 29.5 million bushels above the USDA’s March estimate.

Besides the positive market factors and the summer season around the corner, the policy environment also favors the U.S. ethanol industry. The Biden administration plans to allow the sales of E15, gasoline with 15% of ethanol, in various Midwest states. The group of governors emphasized that this action would lower the gas prices at the pump and help the corn farmers.

In Brazil, the second largest ethanol producer, corn-based ethanol production capacity has soared recently. Brazil is taking advantage of its record harvest 2022/23 corn season. According to the country’s national corn ethanol union (UNEM), Brazil will produce six billion liters of corn-based ethanol in the 2023/23 season, a 36.7% increase compared to last season and 1,053% compared to 2017. Corn-based ethanol is expected to account for 19% of the ethanol produced in the country, a significant increase from 13.7% in the current season.

Indonesia OKs Bioceres’s Gene-Modified Wheat for Use in Food

Indonesia approved imports of genetically-modified HB4 wheat for use in food after already green-lighting it for feed.

NOTE: Rosario-headquartered Bioceres is trying to go where no company has before by bringing a GM wheat to market, and its plans to scale up production in Argentina this year

NOTE: Brazil recently became the second country after Argentina to approve HB4 wheat for planting, though it will take years to adapt seed genetics to more tropical conditions




This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at or contact us at to learn more.


Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.



This message may contain confidential or privileged information, or information that is otherwise exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, you should promptly delete it and should not disclose, copy or distribute it to others.


ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates