TFM Morning Update 03-15-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after meeting resistance at the 45-day moving average on Tuesday and then continuing to move lower. Yesterday, export sales were solid and a flash sale was reported.
A US weather forecaster is expecting a higher chance for a La Nina weather pattern over the summer which could cause drier conditions from June through August in the US.
In yesterday’s export sales report, it was revealed that China bought a cargo of US corn, and another cargo was switched to China from unknown destinations. This is encouraging given the recent sales cancellations in soybeans.

Soybeans are higher again this morning with support from both soybean meal and oil. Yesterday, soybean oil was a large driver for soybeans. May soybeans have hit resistance at the 50-day moving average which is around $12.00.
The NOPA crush for February is seen at 178.058 million bushels which would be a record high for the month of February. This number would be down 4.2% from January’s crush but up 7.6% from the previous year.
In Argentina, the states of Cordoba and Buenos Aires are receiving too much rain which could hinder the soybean harvest there. In addition, there have been rumors that the government will implement another round of the soy dollar program to incentivize farmer selling.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning despite losses in both corn and soybeans. China has canceled a number of US wheat shipments over the past week, but yesterday it canceled a shipment from Australia which spooked the market.
Yesterday’s export sales were a marketing year low thanks to Chinese cancellations, but that was mostly expected. Russia and Ukraine remain the most competitive exporters and continue to dominate export trade.
China’s wheat market is reportedly soft as a result of higher supply and lower demand. This could point to a weakening economy and explain the recent sales cancellations.

Amanda Brill