TFM Morning Update 03-17-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day as it follows the gains in wheat. The May contract found some support at the 100-day moving average last week but posted a 10-3/4 cent loss throughout the week. US corn is competitively priced, and good export demand has been supportive.
President Trump has said that he plans to move forward with both reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on Canada starting April 2. The last two times the tariffs were supposed to go into effect they were pushed back, so there is a degree of uncertainty to what will happen this time.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 73,211 contracts of corn as of March 11 which left them with a net long position of 146,541 contracts. Funds have gone from near record long to this level over the past few weeks.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning and gave back some larger overnight gains as soybean oil followed palm oil futures lower. Soybean crush values have been recently driven by high soybean oil prices. Both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher.
Estimates from Bloomberg ahead of the NOPA crush report see February soybean crush slowing from January to 187.9 million bushels. If realized, this would be up 0.9% from the previous year but down 6.2% from the previous month.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day and are leading the grain complex higher. May futures have gained 40 cents since the new contract low was made two weeks ago. Drier forecasts in HRW wheat areas have been supportive.
More support may be coming from weather in the Black Sea region. The area received some rain over the weekend, but it was light, and the amounts expected this week are likely not enough to make up for the dry soil moisture levels. Above normal temperatures are expected as well.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 4,987 contracts which left them net short 77,412 contracts. They were sellers of KC wheat by 9,440 contracts which increased their net short position to 48,722 contracts.

Amanda Brill