TFM Morning Update 03-18-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning with support from the wheat market along with a stronger export sales pace. Prices have been consolidating right at the 40-day moving average in the May contract.
In Brazil, rains have fallen across the country but more importantly in Mato Grosso which is a main growing area and had previously been dry for the second crop corn. These recent rains have caused Brazilian corn futures to fall.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a large amount of corn as of March 12. They bought back 40,867 contracts which lowered their previously record net short position to 255,928 contracts.

Soybeans are starting the week lower after last week’s gains of around 14 cents in the May contract. Friday’s NOPA crush report which saw 186.194 mb crushed, a record for the month of February.
Brazilian soybean premiums had risen over the past two weeks due to a lack of farmer selling in the country but with last week’s rally, the uptick in sales may be causing some weakness and lower premiums today. Brazil is now estimated to have harvested 62.25% of its 23/24 soybean crop.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back soybeans but not in the same numbers as they did corn. They bought back 16,862 contracts which leaves them net short 155,137 contracts and no longer holding a record short position.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning following news of drone attacks by Russia into the port city of Odesa in Ukraine. There were 16 drones that targeted at least 2 agricultural areas and were reportedly retaliation against Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
The European Union is considering a ban on Russian imports of wheat as the cheap imports have lowered prices for local farmers sparking waves of protests across the EU.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of wheat by 13,331 contracts which increased their net short position to 78,870 contracts as of the 12th.

Amanda Brill