TFM Morning Update 03-18-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as trade expects a drop in weekly ethanol production. May soybeans are down 2 cents to $4.52 while December is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.80-1/4.
Estimates for the weekly US EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.125 million barrels per day while stockpile estimates are higher at 25.74m bbl from 25.58m a week ago.
At the end of the month, the USDA will release its Planting Intentions report. The soybean to corn price ratio currently favors corn planting for new crop, but difficulty locking in fertilizer could push more acres to soybeans.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following yesterday’s slight rebound from the prior limit down day. May soybeans are down 8-1/4 cents to $11.48-3/4 while November is down 2-3/4 cents to $11.27-1/4. May soybean meal is up $0.30 to $312 and soybean oil is down 0.51 cents to 65.46 cents.
Brazil is reportedly negotiating its soybean inspection framework after China made complaints about soybean quality that caused exports to be temporarily halted. Brazilian officials will meet with the Chinese who have complained about weeds in their shipments.
Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 16.32 mmt in March which would compare to 16.47 mmt estimated the previous week. Soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.66 mmt compared to 2.82 mmt previously estimated.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with May Chicago wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $5.87-1/2, KC wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $6.04-3/4, and Minn wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $6.26. Wheat has largely been a follower the past few weeks.
Russian wheat exports for March could reach as high as 4.5 mmt which would be the second highest since March of 2023. This is up from last week’s forecast of 3.7 mmt.
The USDA has released its updated winter wheat conditions for the week ending March 15. The good to excellent rating in Kansas has been lowered to 52% from 56%, and in Oklahoma, ratings fell to 18% from 24%. Texas ratings fell 1 point to 15% good to excellent.

Amanda Brill