TFM Morning Update 03-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but has been rangebound for over a week facing resistance at the 40-day moving average. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.
With planting in the US beginning soon, there is a concern about soil moisture in the western Corn Belt being too dry. There is rain in the forecast this weekend which should help.
In Brazil, winter corn planting is seen at 93.1% complete which compares to 85.8% the previous year and a 5-year average of 82.4%. Parana is 96.4% complete while Sao Paulo is 70.2% complete.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as soybean oil backs off its recent highs despite the rally in palm oil. Soybean meal is slightly higher this morning but has trended lower which has reduced crush margins.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will announce whether they are cutting interest rates or holding off, and the US dollar is pricing in that they will not reduce rates as it rallies this morning. Typically, rallies in the dollar are negative for commodities.
In Indonesia, palm oil exports have fallen by 25.4% month over month to 1.59m tons from 2.13m tons in January. This has caused a rally in palm oil futures which has mostly supported soybean oil.

Wheat is mixed this morning but is trending higher from lows earlier this morning. KC wheat is leading the way after winter wheat crop ratings were released by the USDA.
For the week ending March 17, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.
The European Union is considering a ban on imports of Russian wheat as the cheap imports are lowering prices domestically and causing farmers to protest across the EU.

Amanda Brill