TFM Morning Update 03-20-2024

CORN

Corn is quietly trading near the bottom of a 2 1/2 cent range this morning. as it continues to consolidate ahead of next week’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report.
Yesterday funds were active buyers in May corn, covering an estimated 2,000 contracts, bringing their estimated net short position to 288,000 contracts. While this is not a record, it remains a sizable position for this time of year.
Today the weekly EIA ethanol production report will be issued for the week ending March 15. The trade is expecting production to come in higher than last week at 1.03 million barrels/day, with stocks at 25.86 million barrels versus last week’s 25.782 million.
Central Brazil is expected to see some good shower activity that will be beneficial to the safrinha corn crop, while southern areas will see drier conditions that could stress the immature crops in there.

The soybean complex is trading higher across the board this morning with all three legs trading near the upper end of their respective ranges. Soybeans are gaining support from both higher meal and oil as Board crush margins gain about a penny.
Managed funds were quiet buyers across the soybean complex yesterday. They bought an estimated 1,000 soybean contracts, 1,000 meal, and 2,000 soybean oil. This brings their estimated short positions to 156k soybeans, 55k meal, and 33k oil.
Central Brazil is expected to see rain this week, while it will be good for safrinha corn, it could slow harvest activity.
The ongoing harvest in Brazil has depressed the country’s export premiums which are about $1/bu. cheaper than US offers and has slowed US exports.

The wheat complex is trading lower with all three classes near the bottom of their trading ranges as the market consolidates from the last two days of higher prices.
While Matif wheat is still near three-week highs, it is currently trading lower and offering some pressure to the wheat complex.
Offering some support, the US Plains and the Black Sea region has been dry. Though beneficial moisture is expected to move into the Central and Souther Plains later this week and next. While the Northern Plains should see a shot of cold air with some snow. The Black Sea is expected to see widespread showers next week.
Yesterday, managed funds were active buyers in Chicago wheat as they covered an estimated 4,000 contracts. They are now estimated to hold a net short position totaling 81,000 contracts.

Scott Masters