TFM Morning Update 03-20-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day with the May contract finding support at the 200-day moving average yesterday before moving higher. Strong export demand has kept the corn market supported.
US ethanol stocks fell by 2.9% to 26.575m bbl compared to analyst expectations of 27.271m. Plant production came in at 1.105m barrels per day compared to the average guess of 1.059m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 1,100k tons. This would compare to 981k last week and 1,186k tons a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have been drifting to lower prices since the beginning of February due to poor export demand and tariff threats. The USDA’s potential reduction in soybean planting intentions could be helpful. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 250k and 800k tons with an average guess of 638k. This would compare to 795k last week and 494k the year before.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower after posting double digit losses yesterday that far exceeded Chicago wheat’s loss. This came after needed rains fell in hard red winter wheat areas.
US 2025 all-wheat acres could reach 46.6 million (up from 46.0 million last year). March 1 stocks are expected to be around 1,225 million bushels (up from 1,089 million last year). There’s also a chance of rain in Kansas.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 650k tons with an average guess of 513k. This would compare to 866k last week and 176k tons the previous year.

Amanda Brill