TFM Morning Update 03-20-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning with prices for the May contract likely meeting some resistance at $4.70. May corn is down 2-1/2 cents at $4.67-1/4 while December is down 2-3/4 cents to $4.91-3/4.
Yesterday’s export sales report was decent for corn but slid slightly from last week. Sales totaled 1,184k tons, which compared to 1,504k last week and 1,558k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Japan, and Spain.
S&P Global is estimating that the US will plant 95.2 million acres of corn in 2026. This would be up slightly from its last estimate but would be down from 98.8 ma last year. More acres could shift to soybeans if locking in fertilizer remains difficult.

Soybeans are trading higher again to start the day with support from bean oil despite lower crude. May soybeans are up 2 cents to $11.70-1/2 while November is up 1-1/2 cents to $11.47-3/4. May soybean meal is down $0.10 to $332.40 and soybean oil is up 0.53 cents to 65.94 cents.
Yesterday’s export sales were slow for soybeans at 305k tons, which compared to 466k the previous week and 353k tons a year ago. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and unknown destinations.
China has restricted fertilizer exports in order to protect its domestic market. This further tightens supply that has already been hit by the closed Strait of Hormuz. Up to 40 mmt of China’s fertilizer exports could be impacted.

Wheat is trading lower this morning and may have also found some resistance around $6.20. May Chicago wheat is down 8-3/4 cents to $5.99-1/4, KC is down 10-1/2 cents to $6.16-3/4, and Minn wheat is down 4-3/4 cents to $6.39.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales fall from last week at 402k tons which compared to 496k the previous week and 242k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.
SovEcon has increased its estimate for the 2026 Russian wheat crop production to 87.6 mmt, an increase of 1.7 mmt from its previous estimate citing improved yield estimates and larger planted area of winter wheat.

Amanda Brill